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Thursday PM Forecast: dense fog and continued warmth

1 year 1 week 3 days ago Thursday, February 23 2023 Feb 23, 2023 February 23, 2023 3:29 PM February 23, 2023 in Forecast Discussion
Source: WBRZ Weather

On Thursday, a new record highest low temperature was set as thermometers stayed at 70 degrees, above the former record of 68. The afternoon saw a 2022 record high tied (as of 4pm) as temperatures hit 86 degrees.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Initially, skies will be partly cloudy into the evening hours. Low temperatures will again stop near 70 degrees, challenging the previous record highest low of 68 degrees in 2018. With much lighter south winds of 5-10mph and dew point temperatures in the upper 60s, some fog will develop near the coast and settle inland. A *DENSE FOG ADVISORY* is in effect from 9pm tonight until 9am Friday along and south of I-12. Visibility OF one quarter mile or less in dense fog could cause hazardous driving conditions due to low visibility. Slow down, use low beam headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you. Like much of the week, Friday will be mostly cloudy and warm. High temperatures are pegged for the middle 80s, and so records will be within reach again. The standing mark is 85 degrees set in 2022. There will be a dissipating cold front stalled between I-10 and I-20 which could try to spark a stray, afternoon shower.  

Up Next: The weekend will remain warm. A little more afternoon sun is expected and high temperatures will be running about 15 degrees above average between 83 and 85 degrees. Overnight low temperatures will stay rather muggy too, in the mid to upper 60s. A cold front will bring spotty showers and thunderstorms to the area on Monday. Rain coverage will be scarce with the best chance north of I-12. While temperatures will temporarily come down a few degrees behind the front, they will stay above average into the middle of next week. The most noticeable change will be a dip in humidity on Tuesday and Wednesday.  


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Detailed Forecast: A broad and anomalous upper level ridge of high pressure will anchor over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. This will cause well above average high and low temperatures, and largely shield the area from organized systems capable of producing rain. Given the prevalence of morning stratus clouds with this regime, it has been challenging for temperatures to warm until the clouds lift and mix out a bit. This could be the difference maker in many areas falling just short of breaking record highs through Sunday. Additionally, with warmer surface temperatures and low-level moisture still present, a token ten percent shot at a shower will be left in the forecast since a weak front will stall in the region. The ridge will reach peak heights over the area on Friday and then slowly back into the eastern Gulf of Mexico and start to weaken some before finally being suppressed to the southeast Sunday and Monday. As a result, while Saturday and Sunday will still be quite warm, temperatures may back off by a degree or two. Into Monday, the next upper level trough of low pressure will have a clearer path into the region thanks to ridge retreating. All of the ingredients for severe weather will come in early and then quickly move north of the area. Meanwhile, the actual cold front will come much later in the day. Since the timing will be off, only sub-severe spotty showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening. In fact, coverage looks like it could be rather sparse at this time. Drier dewpoints will follow allowing cooler mornings on Tuesday and Wednesday.

--Josh

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