After two quiet days, unsettled weather will return for the bulk of the week. Expect above average temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: High pressure will still be in control of the weather today, but do expect to see some signs of change. Early sun will give way to increasing clouds with temperatures breaking into the mid 60s. Overnight, skies will be mostly cloudy with lows near 50 degrees. A few showers will be possible, especially near daybreak.  

Up Next: Moisture will be lingering through much of the week, as a front stalls over the area and weak upper level disturbances ride overhead. High temperatures will also be increasing through the week, eventually breaking into the mid 70s by Wednesday. These numbers will stay through Friday, as an approaching cold front will finally push the weak disturbance to the east by the weekend. Models are still inconsistent with the timing of the cold front, but the current forecast calls for a Saturday passage.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak mid-level ridge of high pressure will escape eastward on Monday, ending the brief run of nice, seasonable weather. Moisture will edge northward from the Gulf and a weak disturbance in the upper levels will help to increase cloud cover through the afternoon and evening. A warm front will approach from the Gulf and help to initiate showers as early as Monday night. The front and a series of disturbances will keep unsettled weather around for the rest of the week. The next disturbances will come on Tuesday and Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorms developing north of the warm front along the coast. Enough instability will be present for a few storms to possibly produce hail. Timing is tricky on additional disturbances from there, but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will stay in the forecast through Friday. Once the warm front lifts through on Wednesday morning, well above average temperatures can be expected. This advance of warmth and moisture may create some morning fog as well. The next cold front will come next weekend. As of now, the GFS and ECMWF model guidance differs in timing from Saturday morning to Sunday morning. Of course, as we get closer, these details will become clearer.    

--Dr. Josh

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