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Monday PM Forecast: dry trend with staying power

5 months 2 weeks 3 days ago Monday, April 18 2022 Apr 18, 2022 April 18, 2022 6:01 PM April 18, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

For the first time in a while, the Baton Rouge area is looking at a workweek with minimal weather impact. This comes after strong storms blew through northern parts of the viewing area late on Easter Sunday.

Next 24 Hours: The nighttime hours will bring clear skies early with a few clouds late. Northeast winds of 5-10mph will help temperatures cool to about 5 degrees below average, into the low 50s. A few typically cooler spots north of Baton Rouge could bottom in the upper 40s. Some clouds will be around to start Tuesday but these are expected to diminish to a mainly sunny sky in the afternoon. With east winds of 5-10mph, temperatures will top out in the mid 70s.        

Up Next: Comfortable conditions will stay around through Wednesday as a few clouds pass. Thursday through Saturday, much warmer conditions will build over the region leading to mostly sunny skies, high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s and low temperatures in the mid 60s. Still, rain-free weather is expected. Sunday into early next week is a little less clear at this time. While impactful weather is not anticipated, some isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms with a more summer-like pattern could be in play. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Explanation: The next few days we will see temperatures slowly moderate but humidity is unlikely to return until the middle of the week. Aloft, northwesterly winds will transition westerly on Tuesday and remain in place through Wednesday. With this, dew point temperatures are expected to keep low, mostly in the 40s. The dry air mass will promote large diurnal temperature ranges—that is a big difference in highs and lows with afternoons in the mid to upper 70s and mornings in the low to mid 50s. Actually, a few cool spots could sneak into the upper 40s on Tuesday morning. A very weak upper level disturbance will traverse the area on Wednesday but will lacking moisture, just some passing clouds are anticipated. By Thursday, a larger upper level ridge of high pressure will build over the Southeast U.S. and center over the central Gulf Coast States to end the week. As a result, the atmosphere and surface temperature will trend warmer. Sinking air beneath the ridge will bring high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s Thursday through the weekend. Moisture will not necessarily surge back into the region and the subsidence will help to keep afternoon humidity tolerable for a few more days. By the end of the weekend, an upper level trough of low pressure will begin to dig into the Upper Midwest Saturday and Sunday and try to weaken the ridge. Just how much the ridge is suppressed will make the difference in how warm and dry we stay. If the ridge holds firm, then high temperatures will stay in the upper 80s with relatively little precipitation. If the ridge breaks down a bit, Sunday and Monday could be in the low to mid 80s with pop-up afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

--Josh

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