Following up an unseasonably cool weekend, pleasant conditions will welcome the new week. You still have some time to enjoy before humidity increases.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A weak cold front will dive through the area on Monday but will not have a major impact on your weather. Other than a few wispy, high clouds, mainly sunny skies are expected. The front will simply reinforce northerly winds allowing for low humidity as highs top out in the low 80s. Overnight will be partly cloudy with lows in the upper 50s.  

Up Next: Winds will shift southerly on Tuesday leading to a slow return of humidity. A weak disturbance could create showers and thunderstorms Tuesday night. Other than that, thermometers will gradually warm each day through the weekend with highs returning to the upper 80s and lows in the upper 60s. As this occurs, the daytime warming and availability of Gulf moisture will allow afternoon showers and thunderstorms—especially Thursday through Saturday.  

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, The Mississippi River has fallen into moderate flood stage with a level of 39.3’ as of Monday morning. The river is expected to continue falling over the next two weeks. The high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue for a few spots north and south of Baton Rouge that are not protected by levees. Unprotected low-lying areas will be flooded and agricultural operations will be impacted on the west side of the river. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees at these levels.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak cold front will slip south through the area to begin the week. It will be a difficult boundary to detect, in the absence of any appreciable moisture in the atmosphere, no clouds or rain are expected. The front will simply maintain northerly winds for another 24 hours. Once that front diminishes in the northern Gulf of Mexico, onshore flow will commence and a gradual return of moisture will begin. By Tuesday evening, dew points will return to the 60s and there will be some noticeable humidity in the air by Wednesday. With the addition of this moisture, and a weak disturbance riding through the jet stream on Tuesday night, some showers and thunderstorms become possible. Tuesday night will be on the condition that the disturbance can hold together. Otherwise, persistent onshore flow will lead to the more familiar marine breeze and daytime warming cycle of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.  

--Josh

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