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Jul. 14 - what 175 model simulations say about any tropical development in the Gulf
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A weakly organized system in the eastern Gulf is being watched, but the chances of tropical development remain low.
Out of 175 computer model simulations, only 14 show any tropical development. Most of those 14 come from artificial intelligence-based guidance, which meteorologist Malcolm Byron said has shown promising signs of success in recent years.
"If you see things online that worry you about this system, hold your horses," Byron said. "I don't think it's anything to be concerned about just yet."
The National Hurricane Center says no development is expected over the next week, and development odds for the disturbance in the eastern Gulf are too low to be introduced at this time.
Beyond that, the local forecast looks much drier. Rain coverage has dropped from 30 percent down to 10 percent, with highs in the mid-90s and lows in the middle 70s expected over the next several days.
A large pocket of dry air wrapping around the system is one reason for the quiet stretch, as tropical moisture stays concentrated over the eastern Gulf away from the local area.
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