Warmer week ahead, isolated showers possible
Warmth will slowly increase each afternoon through the week while only isolated showers seem possible due to a few weak storm systems.
Today and Tonight: While a few clouds may mix in through the day, more sunshine is on tap for your Monday. Highs will be in the low 80s. By the nighttime hours, the return of humidity may be noted as lows stay in the low to mid 60s.
Up Next: On Tuesday, a weak cold front will move into the region. This will bring the possibility of an isolated shower, but most of the area will remain dry under mostly cloudy skies. The front will never fully clear the area and therefore a drop in temperatures is not expected. High temperatures will remain in the mid 80s with low temperatures will remain in the low 60s. After a few clouds and possibly a shower early Wednesday, the rest of the week will likely remain mostly sunny. Beyond this, the next chance for rain will come over the weekend. At this point, it once again seems that only dodgy showers and thunderstorms will be in play.
THE SCIENCE: The biggest forecast concern through Wednesday will be a weak upper level trough axis sliding through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. In advance of this upper level trough, a weakening shortwave ridge axis will continue to dominate the Gulf South today. By tomorrow, even with the approaching trough and weak cold front, a lack of instability due to weak mid-level lapse rates will greatly limit convective potential across the vast majority of the forecast area. Mid-level lapse rates and overall instability values are most favorable over the northwest portion of the forecast area for convective activity, so isolated rain coverage of 20-30 percent will be carried. Fortunately, the relatively limited instability and lack of wind shear will keep any storms that do develop from turning strong. Temperatures will remain warm on Tuesday with highs expected to rise into the lower 80s. The trough and associated front will be past the area by Wednesday and an increase in negative vorticity advection will take over. As a result, clearing skies and warmer temperatures in the middle 80s are anticipated. A very benign weather regime will dominate the area Thursday and Friday as a strong deep layer ridge sits over the Gulf South. Heading into the upcoming weekend, a broad mid to upper level ridge will extend from the western Atlantic into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. The forecast area will be embedded in deep layer southerly flow through this period. This southerly flow will pump in deeper moisture, and result in an increase of instability during peak heating in the late morning and afternoon hours. If the convective temperature is reached to break the mid-level cap, some isolated to possibly widely scattered showers and thunderstorms could develop each afternoon. It looks like convective activity will be most likely for areas west of I-55 as the strength of the ridge and resultant cap will be weakest over this area.
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