Thursday PM Forecast: strong storms possible as workweek ends
It now appears that the best chance of rain in the 7-Day Forecast will come on Friday. In fact, some strong boomers could fire up just as many of us are starting the weekend.
Next 24 Hours: Any showers than manage to develop will diminish into the evening hours. Beneath partly cloud skies, low temperatures will only drop into the mid 70s. Friday will begin quiet, with partly sunny skies sending high temperatures into the low 90s again. However, some action is expected before the workweek finishes. A cluster of thunderstorms will develop north of the area during the morning hours and race southeast through the Capital Area between 2 – 6pm. Any of these thunderstorms could produce strong, gusty wind so have a way to access alerts, like the WBRZ WX App and be sure to get to a sturdy shelter if a warning is issued. Know that the exact track of the storm line will not be clear until it develops. Although it appears that the Baton Rouge area will be affected, if the line jogs a bit further east, it would be more of an issue for the I-55 corridor and points east of that.
Up Next: The possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue through Saturday. Still, this will only bring measurable rain to about 30 or 40 percent of the forecast area. Those isolated, afternoon showers and associated clouds may keep high temperatures down by 2 or 3 degrees in the low 90s. After Sunday, chances for pop-up showers and thunderstorms will trend closer to zero to begin next week. That will mean a return to high temperatures in the mid 90s lasting for several hours in the afternoons. Plenty of humidity will lead to feels-like temperatures in the low 100s. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.
The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, all is quite. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.
The Explanation: Friday, the stubborn upper level ridge responsible for the warm and stable atmosphere of late will start to erode on the eastern side. The Baton Rouge area will be sitting on the northeast side of the ridge. Clockwise wind flow in the atmosphere will result in northwesterly steering winds as that ridge retreats slightly westward. A slightly cooler atmosphere, compared to previous days will be supportive of thunderstorms. An upper level disturbance moving through the Midwest will cause a cluster of showers and thunderstorms to break out, growing into a mesoscale convective system through Friday morning. Riding those northwesterly steering winds, the line of thunderstorms will race southeastward into southwest Mississippi and southeast Louisiana by the afternoon. The pre-storm environment will be rather supportive to the existing complex with plenty of heat and humidity, ingredients that favor damaging wind gusts in the strongest thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a level 2/5 "slight risk" for severe weather as a result. Brief downpours, some hail and frequent lightning are all possible as well. Once the MCS develops, it will be easier to nail down exact timing and placement. However, the general idea for now is for these thunderstorms to track between the Mississippi River and the Pearl River between 2 - 6pm. Saturday will be a transitional day with the ridge already trying to build back to the east and over the local area. How quickly this occurs will determine how soon afternoon convection is stunted. While some isolated activity is possible during the first half of the weekend, it should be hard to come by on Sunday afternoon. By early next week, the ridge and drier pattern should win out once again. Basically, these subtleties in rain or not, really only make the difference in highs reaching the mid 90s on dry days or low 90s on days with any precipitation. Lows will steadily be in the low to mid 70s.
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