A weakening front will still influence local weather through the upcoming weekend. Unfortunately, it will not do much to affect temperatures though.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Friday will bring some quieter conditions after two very unsettled days. Mostly cloudy skies and highs in the mid to upper 80s will give way to a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms—especially south and east of Baton Rouge. Overnight, lows will generally be in the low 70s except for some locations north of I-12, which could again sniff out some upper 60s.       

Up Next: Our old friend, the “cold” front, will begin to retreat north as a warm front this weekend. As the boundary slides from the Louisiana Coast into southwest Mississippi, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to be in the area from Saturday afternoon to Sunday evening. Neither day looks like a washout but there certainly may be some times of rain, including evenings. Temperatures will be above average and humidity will continue. Warmer and drier conditions are expected for much of next week.

Football Forecasts: Friday night high school games should find showers and thunderstorms diminishing in coverage around kickoff. One or two games could meet a delay if there are any remnant lightning strikes around. LSU and Southern play host this weekend and both fanbases will feel the humidity and have to dodge showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Of course, if there is lightning around (if you can hear thunder, it is), get to a nearby shelter until the storm passes. If showers and thunderstorms do occur, they will move quickly and not dampen too much of the day. Thanks to a weak front pushing north through the area, it is not all about daytime heating for showers to develop, and we cannot rule out some lingering activity into the games.

The Tropics: Tropical Storm Kirk has crossed the Windward Islands and is rapidly weakening. Unfavorable upper level conditions will cause the system to dissipate in the Caribbean Sea this weekend. In the North Atlantic, the remnants of Leslie are producing hurricane force winds well west of The Azores. This system has a 90 percent chance of reacquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics over the next day or so as it drifts over the central Atlantic.    

THE EXPLANATION:

The weak front we have had draped across the area since Wednesday will remain stalled along the Mississippi and Louisiana coasts. Lift will decrease as the upper level trough shifts toward the Eastern Seaboard, and precipitable water values will drop to around 1.8 inches as some drier mid-level air pushes in from the north. However, enough of the boundary will linger to enable scattered shower and thunderstorms. Only in southwest Mississippi will rain coverage be a little lower. Overnight, showers and thunderstorms will diminish and once again, some slightly cooler and drier conditions may be noticed north of I-12 with patchy fog. Our old front may start to retreat north as a weak warm front on Saturday through Sunday leading to isolated or scattered showers and thunderstorms. Southwest flow aloft will maintain a deep layer of moisture across southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi. Due to the frontal forcing, showers may continue even beyond the peak daytime heating hours, including into the evening. High temperatures should be slightly above average in the middle to upper 80s with low temperatures also above average in the low 70s. Monday through Thursday will be drier and warmer across the Gulf South. A strong upper level ridge will become centered over the region, and a resulting increase in subsidence will suppress convective development through the remainder of the extended period. The subsidence will dry out the mid-levels of the atmosphere, but there should be just enough low level instability in place to produce a pop-up shower or two.

--Dr. Josh

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