THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Wednesday’s weather? You guessed it, more steam allowing another flare up of showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s with convection bubbling up during the late morning and early afternoon hours. Coverage will be in the 40 percent range around the 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area with the best chances south of the interstates. Overnight will be quieter but muggy with lows in the mid 70s. 

Up Next:  Thursday will bring one more afternoon of scattered action before the pattern allows a transition to more isolated activity. As you might expect, fewer showers and storms will lead to slightly warmer high temperatures, but only by a degree or two. By the weekend, standard summer weather will be in place. Our forecast calls for partly sunny and humid afternoons with highs in the low to mid 90s and isolated showers and thunderstorms.

THE SCIENCE:

Forecast Discussion:  The pattern will not change much this week. There are persistent upper level ridges in the Southwestern United States and off of the East Coast. In between these two features, a slight weakness or trough will maintain just enough instability for diurnal heating and marine breezes to trigger showers and thunderstorms. Each day, timing should be along the coast early and inland by late morning and early afternoon. All action will tend to fizzle by evening. Of course, the more numerous showers and thunderstorms will help to limit temperatures somewhat, but a pretty steamy feel will continue as we expect this time of year. By next weekend, forecast models suggest that the western ridge should begin to protrude eastward towards the Gulf Coast. If this verifies, convection will begin to get capped off. In addition, another stretch of high heat would be the result. We’ll monitor temperature trends closely for what could be another brutal round of hot weather.   

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-RGIII