The forecast is as copy and paste as one might expect for the last week of July in Baton Rouge. The good news is that means the tropics have nothing for us at this time.

Next 24 Hours: Skies will clear out overnight while low temperatures settle in the mid 70s. On Tuesday, early sunshine will boost high temperatures into the mid 90s before showers and thunderstorms bubble up from late morning through late afternoon.   About 40 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County Forecast Area will receive rain, with greater coverage south of I-12 and less coverage north.

It has been a while since we talked about those rain chances or percentages on the forecast board often seen during the warm season. Here is a quick reminder about what those mean for the WBRZ Weather 13 Parish, 3 County forecast area.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will offer virtual repeat weather with temperatures and daily rain coverage remaining the same and close to seasonable averages. The bottom line is, along the Gulf Coast, when you are locked into a typical summer weather pattern, there can be very little change to the forecast for days to weeks at a time. By this weekend, we might we see a slight tweak up in rain coverage as the upper level pattern alters slightly. Each day, highs and lows should be within a degree or two of the averages of 92 and 74. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.  

The Explanation: An upper level ridge centered across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley will continue to influence the local weather this week. The relatively small size of this ridge will create a gradient in rain coverage across the forecast area. Closer to the coast will be farther from the center of the ridge and therefore have a better chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. Farther inland will be closer to the center of the ridge and therefore have a lesser chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The atmosphere will remain moist and unstable leading to briefly heavy storms with downpours and frequent lightning. Temperatures will not stray far from average with highs in the low to mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s. By the weekend, a stronger upper level trough will push southeast out of the Great Lakes region and squash the upper level ridge farther to the southwest. This will result in subsidence being removed from the atmosphere and therefore showers and thunderstorms will bubble up even more easily with daytime warming. Rain coverage has been left "copy and paste" for now since this is father out in forecast time, but it will likely need raised Friday and beyond as we get closer.    

--Josh

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