*TORNADO WATCH* for the shaded area. We're tracking storms and will bring you warnings, if issued. #WBRZwx pic.twitter.com/1N3kZ0mUT2

— WBRZ Weather (@WBRZweather) April 12, 2020

As of Sunday afternoon, the NWS Storm Prediction Center maintains that the 4/5 "moderate risk" for severe weather remains well northeast of the Baton Rouge area. Much of the WBRZ Weather forecast area is in a 2/5 "slight risk" for severe weather. Due to an increase of thunderstorms over the Atchafalaya Basin, a tornado watch has been issued for the entire viewing area until 8pm since an isolated severe thunderstorm may still develop. Hail and gusty wind are the primary threats. Reinforcing the message from Sunday morning, an "outbreak" remains unlikely and widespread severe weather will stay well north of the I-10/12 corridor and into southwest Mississippi.

Sunday: An upper level wave and associated cold front will move into the area on Sunday with rain and possibly severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center still keeps the potential for severe storms across our area, but has shifted higher threats to our northeast. The majority of southeast Louisiana is under a slight (2/5) category for severe weather, with some southwestern Mississippi counties increasing that to enhanced (3/5). The threat drops to our west in Acadiana to marginal (1/5). Activity will peak through 5PM. Regardless of severe weather, winds are expected to be gusty through the day with 20 to 30mph sustained winds and gusts over 40mph. Secure loose objects this morning as winds reach around 20 mph late in the morning.

*WIND ADVISORY* for the shaded area. Gusts may top 40mph. The latest winds --> https://t.co/8dsSPuGqVa #WBRZwx pic.twitter.com/tub5YeRKSy

— WBRZ Weather (@WBRZweather) April 11, 2020

By Sunday evening, the strongest storms will depart eastward. In this time of staying home with loved ones, now is a great opportunity to identify or review your severe weather plan. Find the lowest and most interior place in your home to use as a safe place if a warning is issued. Mobile Home residents should find a nearby brick and mortar home of a family member or friend as it is recommended you prioritize the near term weather threat over social distancing. CLICK HERE for some ideas. Quiet weather and below average temperatures will persist Monday through Wednesday.  

MAJOR UPDATE! The severe weather threat for today has SIGNIFICANTLY diminished in the local area. Now, there is a 2/5 “slight risk” from Alexandria to #BatonRouge to New Orleans line and points north and east. pic.twitter.com/GLHIR8LPoE

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) April 12, 2020

Many severe weather threats, and this one is no different, are conditional. While the meteorological formula is there, a few caveats exist that has diminished the threat slightly. Some warm air aloft will create stability that could potentially stop significant development. At this time, it is expected that the instability from the surface will overcome this layer, which is why the threat continues. Second, the most favorable ingredients are expected north of Baton Rouge and into Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. In past events we have seen the local area serve as the "breeding ground" for storms and they ramp up in intensity as they move northeast into Mississippi. It is probable that this scenario will play out as cells will likely be developing this afternoon, mainly around the Tidal Lakes area. This is added to say the forecast is not a lock but by no means should you let your guard down or stop preparations. The WBRZ Weather Team will monitor the forecast and immediately pass along changes to the outlooks as well as watches and warnings if they are issued. 

Monday and Beyond: Once the cold front sweeps through by Monday morning, quiet weather will persist through much of the week. Monday will be mild before a reinforcing front flings a few showers across the area on Tuesday. That front will deliver below average temperatures and lows could dip into the 40s on both Wednesday and Thursday. 

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