Tropical Storm Hanna was named late on Thursday night, bringing no major changes to the local forecast. 

THE FORECAST: 

Today and Tonight: The morning hours will start dry before widespread showers and storms move through the area. There is no major flooding concern associated with these storms, however, there may be isolated pockets of heavy rainfall that do cause flooding. All the rain and cloud cover will keep temperatures in the 80s and at the warmest time of the day, we could reach 87 degrees. The storms will die out as the sun goes down and overnight temperatures will be near 76.  

Up Next: Thick tropical moisture will be over us for the duration of the weekend and into early next week. Once the sun comes up, showers and storms will begin to form. Similar to today, there is not a major flood concern, but there could be a few isolated pockets of heavy rain that cause some flooding. Preliminary rain accumulation between now and Tuesday is expected to be 1-4 inches with higher amounts expected near the coast. This is hardly different than a couple of routine rainy summer days. Temperatures will be in the mid-80s in the afternoon. 

The Tropics:

At 4:00 am, the center of Tropical Storm Hanna was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 92.4 West. Hanna is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and a turn toward the west is expected tonight, followed by a generally westward motion through the weekend. On the forecast track, the storm center should make landfall along the Texas coast within the warning area on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected until the system makes landfall. Steady weakening is expected after Hanna moves inland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area by tonight or Saturday morning. 

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by tonight or Saturday morning.

RAINFALL: Hanna is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches through Sunday night in south Texas. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding in south Texas. 3 to 5 inches of rain is expected along the upper Texas and Louisiana coasts, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas.

SURF: Swells generated by Hanna are expected to increase and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  

At 4:00 am, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 51.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A westward to west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and move across these islands Saturday and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and there is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).

WIND: Hurricane or tropical storm conditions are possible within the respective watch areas on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands tonight through Sunday night.

Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in Trinidad and Tobago. Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

THE EXPLANATION:

Tropical Storm Hanna is contributing to precipitable water values, putting them near extreme. With values are near 2 inches right now and could exceed 2.5 inches at times. Though the circulation of Hanna will move over Texas, we will continue to be in the area of tropical moisture through much of the weekend. With all the variables in mind, the time slot for the heaviest rain will be Friday during peak heating. A strong ridge over the central US combined with the persistent southerly flow in our area makes for heavy rain possibilities through Tuesday. Rain totals will likely be between 1-4 inches, but locally higher amounts are possible. 

 --Marisa

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