Though no washouts are expected this weekend, have a plan to step inside for a short time as pop-up thunderstorms will be around. Next week will continue a wet trend.

Next 24 Hours: Through the evening hours, leftover showers will diminish. Low temperatures will remain muggy in the mid 70s. A slightly more normal rhythm is anticipated on Saturday. After some early sunshine drives high temperatures into the low 90s, a few showers and thunderstorms will develop—especially during the late morning and afternoon.     

Up Next: More of the same is in store for Sunday with perhaps a slight increase in rain coverage. A favorable setup for the daily douse will be in place next week. A round of showers and thunderstorms is possible, if not likely, each day, primarily during the afternoons. Since clouds and precipitation will develop rather quickly, high temperatures will not do much better than the upper 80s. Nights will be quieter with low temperatures in the low 70s. While there are no immediate flood concerns, days of repetitive downpours could lead to some isolated poor drainage issues. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

NEW: the first track on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. This system is not a threat to our area.

***The P.T.C. designation allows NHC to issue watches/warnings/advisories on a system that is not yet formed, but expected to and impact land within 48 hours*** pic.twitter.com/oOE7C1YI8Y

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) August 19, 2022

The Tropics: As of 4pm Friday, the National Hurricane Center started issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four. It currently has 35mph winds with a minimum central pressure of 1009mb and is moving northwest at 14mph. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night. Slow strengthening is expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.

The Explanation An upper level ridge over the southwest Atlantic may try to extend into the central Gulf over the weekend. This feature may try to knock down the number of showers and thunderstorms due to associated subsidence, but tropical moisture will remain in place and so some convection is expected each afternoon. Early next week, an upper level trough of low pressure will deepen into the Southeast U.S. and the local area will sit in a persistent southwest upper level flow just east of the center axis of the trough. This puts Louisiana and Mississippi in a favorable position for continued showers and thunderstorms, activity that may be enhanced as disturbances move through the upper levels. Those disturbances would be capable of generating additional showers and thunderstorms, even off the normal peak daily heating times. This pattern will keep high temperatures in check but dew points in the mid 70s will continue making it feel very humid and uncomfortable.

--Josh

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