Your quiet weather pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend. Into Thanksgiving week, things will get more active.  

The Next 24 Hours: Likely, the last night in the 40s, at least for a little while, is ahead. Skies will stay clear and winds will be light. Your Thursday will be seasonably mild with highs in the mid 70s. Look for a lot of sunshine although we could see a cloud or two develop during the afternoon.

After That: The dry pattern will hold through Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, temperatures will be a good 5-10 degrees above average and enough moisture could be around for more clouds and a stray shower. A cold front will slide into the region on Monday with the next chance for showers. Just beyond the 7-Day Forecast, a more vigorous storm system will move across the Gulf South and could warrant attention for better rain chances or even stronger thunderstorms. At this time, it appears the most impactful weather would stay north of the local area. It is still a long way out, so that is just a timeframe to watch for now. CLICK HERE to view your complete 7-Day Forecast.  

The Tropics: A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. There is a 10 percent chance of development during the next several days while the it moves slowly west-southwestward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form between the Bahamas and Bermuda by early next week.  There is a 20 percent chance that this system could develop subtropical characteristics through the middle of next week while it moves northeastward.

The Explanation: A quiet weather pattern will continue as a surface high pressure system moves from the Mid-South to Mid-Atlantic. This “fair weather inducer” will maintain the recent conditions through Friday. That is, expect mainly clear skies and temperatures at or slightly above average. The next upper level trough will cause a surface storm system to form over the weekend. Ahead of that, some warmer temperatures and clouds will return with perhaps just enough humidity to aid a coastal shower on Sunday. As the upper trough swings through on Monday, a cold front will move into the area but dissipate on arrival. Therefore, expect minimal precipitation and only slim adjustments to temperatures, which should trend 2-4 degrees cooler.

Trailing this system, a more potent trough will develop over the Rocky Mountains and orient more favorably for active weather as it moves into the Mississippi River Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday. Depending on the amount of moisture return that can occur after Monday’s front, this system could become a severe weather threat, especially for points north of the local area. Since this is beyond the 7-Day Forecast, there is plenty of time to monitor.

--Josh

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