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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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A week of late summer heat

2 years 2 days 14 hours ago Monday, September 17 2018 Sep 17, 2018 September 17, 2018 6:35 AM September 17, 2018 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

It will be a hot start the week, as high weekend temperatures carry into the days ahead. As Florence continues to produce heavy rain while dissipating in the Ohio Valley, the tropics are much quieter than one week ago.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Monday will be mostly sunny with thermometers sailing into the low 90s before lunchtime. Lots of humidity will mean feels-like temperatures ex ceded 100 degrees for several hours this afternoon. The high will top out around 95 degrees, just three shy of a record for the date. A stray shower or thunderstorm is possible, but rain coverage will be at 20 percent or less for the whole area. Nighttime lows will not offer a ton of relief with mid 70s beneath mainly clear skies.

Up Ahead: The Baton Rouge area remains in between two systems, with Florence to the northeast, and a weak tropical low pressure to the southwest. The low will move a little quicker to the north than Florence, which will allow an upper level ridge to build across Florida and into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will keep rain coverage low, but spotty showers and storms are still possible via the daytime heat. Florence is pushing dry mid-level air into the Deep South, but this has the potential of allowing thunderstorms the ability to produce gusty winds and small hail. This is unlikely, but an isolated cell our two could acquire these characteristics. There is no sign of any organized or widespread precipitation through the week. The ridge will generally persist over the Southeast U.S. keeping temperatures above average through the end of the month.

The Tropics: Tropical Depression Florence continues to add to record breaking and flooding rain totals in the Mid-Atlantic. Some locations have received over 20 inches—especially in North Carolina. The system is accelerating to the northeast now with just 30mph winds but a heavy rain threat will continue into the Ohio Valley. Joyce is also a depression well out into the eastern Atlantic and may dissipate before reaching Europe. Finally, a weak area of low pressure, associated with the remnants of Isaac, is located just south of Jamaica.  Showers and thunderstorms are limited, and any development should be slow to occur during the next day or so.  By Wednesday, environmental conditions will be less conducive for re-development to occur when the system moves toward the Yucatan Peninsula. The National Hurricane Center places formation chances at 20 percent, easing concerns from last week that the system could emerge and strengthen in the Gulf of Mexico.

THE EXPLANATION:

Dry air aloft can be seen very well on water vapor imagery and will continue to slowly move into the forecast area. A very weak surface trough is setup along the southwestern edge of the dry air. However, this is barely evident and stretches from the mouth of the Mississippi River northwest along the river then toward Oklahoma. This feature will help to focus development of some showers and thunderstorms but we will still only observe isolated activity on radar. Deeper moisture will slowly move back over the area as the week progresses. This will return slightly better rain coverage as well as bring the heat down just enough to be tolerable.

--Dr. Josh

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