Weekend showers, significant warming next week
Moving into spring, showers and changing temperatures are a given. A cooler weekend will quickly yield to warmth next week.
Today and Tonight: After topping out in the mid 80s once again, a cold front will creep into the area late Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop, especially in the evening and overnight. The front will move slowly enough and with a north to south fashion such that severe weather and heavy rain are not expected. Nighttime lows will retreat into the low 60s in response to the front, rain cooled air and northerly winds.
Up Next: The front will stall over south Louisiana so clouds and isolated to scattered showers will remain possible through much of the weekend. It is worth noting though, that neither day will be a washout. The best shot at rain is expected Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Areas that end up north of the front, which will pause around I-10, will also experience cooler highs closer to 70. It will not last though. Per the Climate Prediction Center, the first full week of spring is looking warmer and drier than average across the Baton Rouge area and southeast United States. For reference, average temperatures are highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 50s. In fact, some record highs could be challenged by the end of next week.
An upper level ridge will yield just enough for a weak trough to the north to drive a cold front through the local area on Friday night. There is virtually no dynamic support for this surface boundary and therefore it will not create any severe weather. Thunderstorms and brief downpours are possible though due to recent warmth and humidity. For the same reason there will not be severe weather, the lack of significant upper level winds, there will not be much movement with the front over the weekend. It will essentially stall over the northern Gulf of Mexico. With southwesterly flow aloft, mainly cloudy skies will be maintained and a few weak disturbances in the upper levels may cause some times of showers. Beneath the clouds, and with newfound northerly winds, temperatures will return to average over the weekend. The boundary will wash out by early next week and upper level ridge builds back over the Gulf of Mexico. This should limit daily convection and allow much warmer daytime temperatures that may reach the upper 80s by week's end, if not a 90 degree or two in some of the typically warmer locations. Some record highs could be broken.
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