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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday PM Forecast: tropical air mass to bring on more storms

1 month 3 weeks 8 hours ago Thursday, August 11 2022 Aug 11, 2022 August 11, 2022 4:47 PM August 11, 2022 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Expect two more days with a few drenching storms in the area. There are some signs of a slight break in the pattern over the weekend. 

Next 24 Hours: Like clockwork, rain will slowly diminish overnight. Low temperatures will bottom in the low to mid 70s. Radar will get busy again on Friday. High temperatures will struggle to reach the upper 80s as the next crop of showers and thunderstorms bubble up near lunchtime.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

Up Next: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on Saturday. For most locations, rain will remain entirely manageable but some isolated pockets of three or four inches could cause localized street and poor drainage flooding. By Sunday, a slightly drier air mass will move into the region. While this will not eliminate activity, it will cause showers and thunderstorms to be more isolated in coverage and replace the heavy rain threat with a chance for gusty wind. If we could find one day in quite a while where most forecast area backyards stay dry, it would be Monday. Of course, drier days are hotter days. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: The Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean are quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days. 

The Explanation: A weak upper level trough of low pressure, inverted in orientation from south to north continues to press from east to west across the northern Gulf of Mexico with a slug of tropical moisture. Well above moisture content will stay in the atmosphere and so the threat for heavy rain and localized flooding will be around thanks to widespread showers and thunderstorms through at least Friday. On top of the upper level conditions, a weak surface boundary--essentially a trough of low pressure--will settle south toward the I-10/12 corridor while dissipating by Sunday morning. This boundary, while weak, will serve as a focus for additional development of showers and thunderstorms. By the second half of the weekend, the upper level trough will be well west of the area while an upper level ridge of high pressure over the Mountain West squeezes southeastward and overhead. This will place the local area on the eastern fringes of the ridge setting up a northwesterly wind flow aloft. While the atmosphere will dry, resulting in fewer showers and thunderstorms on the whole, that dry air could be ingested by any thunderstorms that do develop to produce gusty winds. There are some signs that at least Monday, if not a day on either side, could stay mostly dry thanks to the lack of overall moisture in the atmosphere. Of course, on these days with less and later convection, high temperatures will go well into the 90s. 

--Josh

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