Throw me something mista, like a jacket!
The days to come will feature clear skies and cool temperatures. The tricky aspect of the forecast lies in the southern extent of a cold air mass diving into the Eastern U.S. next week.
Today and Tonight: Crystal clear blue sky and abundant sunshine will greet your Thursday. The air will be crisp with northerly breezes holding temperatures in the mid 50s. Overnight will be quite cold with many locations, especially north of I-12, flirting with freezing. We’re forecasting 32 degrees in Baton Rouge.
Up Next: Friday will be sunny with highs in the mid 50s. The Krewe of Southdowns will have quiet, chilly weather for their evening parade which rolls at 7pm. The weekend will begin cold—in the mid 30s. A reinforcing front will then cross the region. At this time, a dry atmosphere should mean little more than passing clouds on Saturday Afternoon as highs stretch for the upper 50s. However, with a weak cold front passing through, it would be unwise to entirely rule out a stray shower. Make no mistake; this will be no serious consequence to the Spanish Town parade at noon. Sunday is looking mostly sunny with a morning low in the mid 30s and highs in the upper 50s. We are keeping an eye on more cold air for Mardi Gras and beyond. While the current forecast keeps numbers similar to what we’ve seen, some of the coldest air this winter isn’t out of the question!
Forecast Discussion: High pressure will remain positioned over the Mid-South through Friday Morning. The clockwise wind flow around this system at the surface will result in persistent northerly breezes for the local area—maintaining cool air advection processes. Near freezing temperature may be observed on Friday Morning before the high and a weak upper ridge move over Louisiana thus lessening winds and allowing some compressional warming into the afternoon. Highs will still be below average and in the upper 50s. A few subtle features will dictate the weekend weather. The original surface high will move into the Southeast U.S. Another strong surface high will be moving into the Lower Midwest and the local area will be caught between, creating weak surface trough with a shortwave aloft. This “disturbance” will guide a reinforcing cold front through the area as the western high attempts to overtake the region. With this weak wave and front, while a shower is feasible, a dry atmosphere should mean little more than passing clouds with the frontal passage on Saturday. Sunday will be dry, cool and sunny with that second high in place locally. Another, deeper trough will dig into the Eastern U.S. on Monday and Tuesday. Yet again we’ll notice a dry frontal passage. The bigger question lies in temperatures. The GFS model would have some VERY cold air making it all the way to the Gulf Coast. This would result in highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. The ECMWF is less aggressive holding cold air farther north. We’ve blended the two solutions for now, forecasting temperatures akin to what has already been felt this winter.
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