THE FORECAST: 

Tonight and Tomorrow: Spotty showers still possible this evening before 9 PM, but should stay north of the I-10 corridor and increasing chances into southwest Mississippi. Temperatures will be dropping into the 60s around 11 PM, and on their way to an overnight low of 63°. Winds will initially be out of the west, but be shifting from the north overnight between 5 and 10 mph. A weak high pressure will be approaching on Sunday, allowing for clouds to break up through the morning and producing mostly sunny skies through the afternoon and evening. Highs will be rebounding into the mid-80s, with clear skies staying into the beginning of the workweek.

Up Next:  Dry and clear conditions through Monday, but a wet and active weather pattern will develop on Tuesday, keeping showers and storms in the forecast through the rest of the week. Activity will be peaking Tuesday into Wednesday, and again Friday into Saturday.

THE EXPLANATION:

The strong cold front that produced damaging storms and several tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings across South Louisiana Saturday morning is continuing to depart to our east. The center of the low pressure is just to our north, which will keep the potential for a spotty shower or two north of I-10 until 9 PM. This should only impact counties in Southwest Mississippi and bordering parishes. Skies will stay partly cloudy through much of the evening, with clouds slowly increasing overnight. A high pressure center will make an appearance on Sunday, breaking clouds and helping to dry us out into Monday. This high is localized and will not stay long, as it dissipates overnight into Tuesday morning to return showers and storms in the forecast by the afternoon. These storms are associated with a low pressure that will be developing near Corpus Christi, Texas late Monday, before travelling southwest to northeast across Louisiana Tuesday and into Wednesday. This low will join forces with another, stronger low pressure near the Appalachians, but will allow for a stationary front to linger just to our north. The frontal boundary will be close enough to keep afternoon showers and isolated storms in the area through the rest of the week. Currently, models are hinting at a location far enough away to incur a 30-40% rain coverage through the week, but those percentages could increase if the front stalls more south and closer to the Gulf Coast. Another, stronger low, should develop late in the week, allowing for storm activity to peak Friday and into Saturday. Stay tuned, as there is also a potential for strong storms to develop with the earlier low Tuesday and into Wednesday. Model guidance should be more in agreement with track and severity as we proceed into Sunday. High temperatures through the week will stay in the mid-to-upper 80s, as lows will hover around 70°.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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