Next storm system developing, 1-3 inches of rain expected
The weather will change rapidly over the next 24 hours. Sunny skies early Thursday will quickly cloud up with rain by Friday morning.
Today and Tonight: Clouds will be increasing on Thursday as a warm front approaches the Louisiana Coast. High temperatures will move into the low-to-mid 70s once again but should not get any warmer due to the advancing cloud cover. Showers could develop near the coast before dusk and will overspread the entire forecast area overnight into Friday morning. Nighttime temperatures will be in the 60s.
Up Next: A low pressure system will bring rain to the region early Friday morning through about midday Saturday. The threat for severe thunderstorms appears low. However, a long duration, moderate rain with embedded downpours could result in 1-3 inches for the entire event. Isolated street flooding is possible. Both commutes on Friday could be slow-going. A cold front is expected to sweep through the area Saturday afternoon. One last round of showers may be around for LSU tailgaters through about midday followed by drying conditions during the game against Auburn. Three days away still, timing is tight on the end of rain so continue to check in with WBRZ Weather. Sunday looks much quieter with seasonable temperatures.
The Tropics: A tropical wave producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche has a 30 percent chance of development before it merges with a cold front by early Sunday. The rest of the Atlantic Basin is quiet.
Through Thursday moisture will return to the atmosphere via a southerly flow from the Gulf. This will allow a cloud deck to build over the area from south to north into the afternoon hours. An upper level low pressure system approaching from the west will help to spawn an surface low over the western Gulf of Mexico on Thursday night. A warm front will develop and lift northward with an associated shield of rain. Showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop offshore thanks to some lift in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and some of these showers could even penetrate the coast before sunset. As the surface low moves toward southwest Louisiana, rain will increase in coverage into Friday morning. The aforementioned tropical disturbance will add some moisture to the developing storm system. Therefore, a steady, moderate rain is expected for much of Friday. The surface low will move across the Baton Rouge area Friday afternoon and evening, continuing the threat for rain. As the low moves closer, some times of heavy rain will be possible. The threat for severe weather is low, but between the warm front and cold front Friday night, some thunderstorms could develop. The slow moving nature of this system could allow for some training cells at that time and thus some street or poor drainage flooding. Thanks to the extended duration of this event, rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible through Saturday morning.
With the upper level low moving into Arkansas on Saturday morning, the surface low should be pulled northward which would pull a cold front through the local area. Due to this, clouds and scattered showers are still expected to be in the area Saturday morning. By Saturday afternoon, a sharp dry line should sweep through in the wake of the front. Expect to see clearing skies and dry weather take hold. Temperatures will cool behind the front and so thermometers will not move far from morning readings in the low 60s, perhaps only into the upper 60s. Saturday night, skies will continue to clear with lows in the low 50s. The second half of the weekend will be dry, seasonably cool and sunny. The next storm system presents another timing challenge during the middle part of next week.
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