Rain coverage will ramp up through Wednesday. Downpours and strong storms are possible, especially Wednesday.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A weakening cold front will slide into the area late Tuesday, bringing isolated to scattered showers. The front is expected to stall near the Gulf Coast before changing course on Wednesday. High temperatures will top out in the upper 70s. Overnight, rain and thunderstorms are expected to ramp up late with muggy low temperatures in the upper 60s.

Up Next: A warm front will move north through southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, increasing coverage in showers and thunderstorms early Wednesday morning. As unstable air is restored by the advancing warm front, for areas south of this boundary, a window of opportunity will open for strong thunderstorms. Due the uncertainty of how far north the warmer air will go, the Storm Prediction Center has issued a 2 out of 5 “slight risk” for severe weather across the entire forecast area. However, the farther closer you are to the coast, the better the chance for severe weather. Gusty wind, hail and isolated tornadoes are possible. Additionally, downpours could leave behind 1-4 inches of rain by the end of this event with lower amounts south of I-10 and higher amounts north of I-12.  Overall, Wednesday will be messy with widespread rain, heavy at times, and embedded strong thunderstorms. Much quieter and seasonable weather is expected Thursday through the weekend.

THE EXPLANATION:

A weak trough north of the local area is sending a weakening cold front toward through the local area early Tuesday. Despite the lift generated by the front, upper level winds and temperatures are not very favorable for widespread showers/storms. Though there may be a few more showers compared to Monday, the activity should be generally isolated. A deeper, upper level trough over central Texas will initiate cyclogenesis over southeast Texas and a surface low pressure will cause the stalled front to turn north as a warm front overnight Tuesday into Wednesday. Increasing low-to-mid-level winds out of the southwest will cause ample moisture to ride over the warm front and a widespread shield of rain will develop. It is worth noting that the very cold air aloft as this occurs could cause some hail to develop with the early Wednesday activity. The northward advance of the warm front will set the borders for where severe weather can occur. Any locations falling south of these features will have a risk.

Due to the uncertainty of how far inland the unstable air will make it, the Storm Prediction Center has painted the entire forecast area in a 2 out o5 “slight risk” for severe weather. The surface low and attendant cold front will cross right over the area on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Forecast models depict the surface low moving directly over the I-10/12 corridor. Much of the rain and thunderstorms activity will occur north of the warm front in a clustered presentation on radar. Storms near the surface low and cold front will benefit from more favorable lift and low-to-mid-level winds. These will be most capable of producing damaging wind gusts or an isolated tornado.

Heavier storm clusters will create periodic downpours and any areas stricken with multiple bouts of heavy rain could see some street and poor drainage flooding. An event rain total of 1-4 inches is expected with the lowest amounts along the coast and the highest amounts north of I-12. The front will sweep through the area on Thursday morning with showers ending and clouds lingering into the afternoon. The forecast area will then dry out for the remainder of the week and likely through the weekend. Temperatures will briefly go slightly below average on Thursday and maybe Friday before rebounding over the weekend.    

--Josh

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