Heavy Rain Possible Monday
Tonight and Tomorrow: Partly cloudy tonight, as conditions continue to dry out across the region. Temperatures will be dropping into the 70s around 11 PM, as lows will hover near 76° with light winds out of the south. Partly cloudy skies extend into Monday, with developing showers and storms through the day. Showers could push onshore as early as 7 AM, and should press into the I-10 corridor around noon. Storms will continue through the early evening hours, finally drying by 8 PM. Heavy downpours will be possible within some of these storm cells, so localized flooding will be possible through the day. Temperatures will warm into the 80s around 8 AM, with highs peaking near 89°.
Up Next: Scattered showers and storm activity will peak Monday and Tuesday, but afternoon rain stay in the forecast through the week.
The Tropics: A low pressure system near the North Carolina Outer Banks is moving into the Atlantic. Upper-level winds are forecast to be only marginally conducive for development while the system moves northeastward to east-northeastward, and away from the U.S. east coast, during the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, and also within the next 5 days.
The Bermuda High has kept its influence over the eastern Gulf, which is allowing for southerly surface winds to stay the course. This southerly wind will keep dewpoints elevated, and afternoon storms in the forecast. The activity will peak on Monday, and will slowly tick back to isolated storms later in the workweek. This is a result of an upper level high pressure that is over northern Mexico, shifting more east through the week. Two local results will be felt from this cooler, below average high temperatures, and a slight drop in rain coverage. This high is slow to move, so its grip over us will be very gradual through the week. A weak Gulf disturbance could develop Wednesday, but guidance is not yet definitive. Stay Tuned.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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