While much of the extended forecast is drier, scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible into the weekend. With all of the moisture left behind from recent rain, a tropical air mass and hot temperatures will result in a few days with peak afternoon heat index values, or feels-like temperatures near 110 degrees.

A band of heavy rain is moving southwest toward areas that already saw extremely heavy rainfall the day before, raising the likelihood of flash flooding late in the afternoon into the evening.

According to the alert, two outflow boundaries are converging — one moving southeast into west-central Louisiana and another pushing southwest through the Florida Panhandle and southern Alabama. Their intersection is expected to drive highly efficient rainfall over the next six hours.

Hourly rain totals could reach 3 inches, with instantaneous rates as high as 7 inches per hour possible. Even a brief burst of those rates lasting just 5 to 10 minutes would be enough to cause serious problems.

Urban areas and locations where the ground is already saturated from the previous day's rainfall are at the greatest risk. Flash flooding is considered likely and is expected to be at least scattered across the affected area.

Scattered T-Storms: possible through Saturday, any capable of a quick inch or two

Dangerous Heat: first alerts of 2026 for heat index over 108 degrees

Trending Drier: little more than “pop-ups” Father’s Day onward

Tonight & Tomorrow: A cluster of showers and thunderstorms will linger into the evening hours, mainly along and north of I-12. Some downpours and even flash flooding will be possible through midnight when the storms should fall apart. After that, clouds and humidity will remain with lows staying in the upper 70s. Saturday will be warm and humid with a little sun early, pushing highs into the low 90s. Yet another complex of thunderstorms will dive south toward the I-10/I-12 corridor during the afternoon. While the thunderstorms should be on a weakening trend from north to south, they will still pack a punch for the Baton Rouge Metro Area and points north. Both downpours and gusty winds will be possible. That storm complex will diminish into the evening.

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Up Next: By Sunday, a massive ridge of high pressure will expand across the Gulf South, dominating our weather Father's Day and into early next week. The ridge is a dome of warm air that will press down on the region, trap heat, and squash major cloud development. Daily coverage of showers and thunderstorms will be in the 10-20% range Sunday to Tuesday, meaning more locations will miss rain than get rain. High temperatures will respond by reaching the mid 90s, and with humidity remaining extremely high, additional heat alerts may be posted.

When you combine that heat with humidity (dewpoints in the upper 70s and low 80s), it is going to feel like 105 – 110 degrees. The National Weather Service will likely issue additional Heat Advisories, so check on your neighbors, hydrate constantly, and keep pets indoors.

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The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean, all is quiet. No development is expected over the next seven days.

– Josh 

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