In the near-term, do not expect any high impact weather in the Baton Rouge area. By the end of the week, we will need to keep an eye on a more potent frontal system.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Despite a seasonably mild start to the day, northwesterly winds behind a weak cold front will not allow temperatures to run much this afternoon. Highs will be near or slightly below average in the low to mid 60s. Expect plenty of afternoon sunshine. Overnight will be clear and chilly with low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

Up Next: Wednesday will stay dry with mostly sunny skies and highs in the mid 60s. Moisture will return to the scene on Thursday giving way to increasing clouds and setting the stage for the next storm system. A cold front will approach on Friday beginning the possibility for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Especially as the front crosses early Saturday, rain chances will increase. For that same time, the Storm Prediction Center is also highlighting severe weather potential. Several ingredients will be in place to warrant a slight or possibly enhanced risk for strong thunderstorms in the local area. Stay tuned.

THE EXPLANATION:

The passage of a weak cold front will keep thermometers ten degrees cooler for Tuesday and Wednesday versus Monday. Morning lows will be in the upper 30s on Wednesday. Return flow will commence on Thursday, allowing dew points to increase and moisture to saturate the atmosphere. A warm front may lift through the region and generate enough lift for isolated showers. The bigger game though will come on Friday into Saturday as a cold front approaches the region. This cold front will act on the moisture and milder air to produce scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. The associated surface low will take a track close to Arklatex, which can be favorable for severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has placed a day 4 outlook of 15-30 percent chance for severe weather over the local area—coincident with a “slight to enhanced risk.”

Ahead of the low, rich Gulf moisture will stream northward across the central Gulf Coast with dew points climbing well into the upper 60s and lower 70s. This broad sector of instability will sit beneath quite a bit of speed and directional wind shear.  A strong, southerly low level jet stream will interact with an even stronger southwesterly upper level jet stream. A line of strong thunderstorms will likely cross the region on Saturday morning with damaging wind gusts and possibly a few tornadoes. However, any storm development that precludes the line could have an increased threat of producing a tornado. The front will push through rather quickly, ending precipitation from west to east on Saturday afternoon. The break in active weather will be short as the cold front will retreat north as a warm front late Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms then return to the forecast and may last through Monday with perhaps another threat for strong storms early next week.

--Josh

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