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Active weather persists through Wednesday

6 months 3 weeks 3 days ago Monday, May 10 2021 May 10, 2021 May 10, 2021 5:52 PM May 10, 2021 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

The active start to our new workweek will continue. Showers and thunderstorms remain in the forecast through Wednesday.

Next 24 Hours: A temporary break is on tap for the night ahead. Mostly cloudy skies are expected and a stray shower is possible. Some patchy fog would not be surprising into the morning. It will be muggy with low temperatures in the upper 60s and low 70s. Another crop of showers and thunderstorms is expected on Tuesday, mainly during the afternoon hours. After a high temperature in the low 80s, more than enough energy should be available for scattered activity to pop. There are some indications that activity is a bit more likely north of I-10 and closer to a stalled front across central Louisiana and Mississippi.    

Up Next: A nuisance front will be draped across the I-10/12 corridor on Wednesday setting off a round of showers and thunderstorms. Action could fire up even before daybreak and continue, off and on, through the day. The clouds and precipitation will keep temperatures slightly below average, in the upper 70s. The front should push south on Thursday allowing for gradual clearing. This will setup a stretch of tranquil weather through the upcoming weekend. Thermometers will move from 3-5 degrees below average to average by Sunday For reference, averages are 85 and 64 respectively. Skies will be mostly clear over that period. CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.   

The Explanation: Tuesday temperatures will be mild and dew point temperatures will stay muggy thanks to ongoing south winds. The next upper level disturbance will then move across the region activating showers and thunderstorms—especially along a stalled front which should be positioned roughly halfway between I-20 and I-10. Scattered to widespread activity is expected north of the highways with isolated to scattered activity south. The storms will tap ample energy and moisture for downpours, frequent lightning and briefly gusty wind but a lack of shear should subdue the threat for severe weather. The next disturbance/s will ride quickly on the heels of the previous as the weak front slips southward. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the forecast area as this occurs Wednesday morning. Cooler air arriving at the surface will keep the severe weather threat low but enough moisture will stay in the atmosphere for downpours with any thunderstorms right through Wednesday evening. Overnight, the front will slide south taking the higher chances for rain with it. A much more stable air mass will arrive by Thursday afternoon. Strong dry air advection and increased subsidence will bring clearing skies and decreasing rain coverage. Temperatures will remain cooler than average due to some weak cold air advection with highs in the mid 70s to upper Thursday and Friday. Thursday night, temperatures should dip into the upper 50s and low 60s. This temperature pattern will continue through Saturday morning with some gradual moderation on subsequent highs. A surface ridge of high pressure will shift east on Sunday and onshore flow will take hold. However, thanks to continued stable air close to the surface, little more than some fair weather cumulus clouds will be able to develop through the weekend.

--Josh

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