Thursday morning video forecast
A weak cold front will push into the region Thursday and Friday. Major temperature changes are not expected but more areas will have a shot at beneficial rain. On Wednesday, the expectation was for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly west of the Amite River. A few snuck east of that, but most of the action was indeed in the western half of the forecast area. Locations along I-10 and Highway 61 collected about an inch of rain with standing water on roads where the heaviest action occurred.
Today and Tonight: For your Thursday, expect a little morning sun to drive high temperatures up to about 90 degrees. By afternoon, an approaching cold front will allow clouds, showers and possibly thunderstorms to develop. Due to some drier air aloft, any thunderstorm will be capable of gusty wind but this is not a widespread threat. As always with warm season storms, downpours and frequent lightning are possible too. Overnight, stray showers will linger with low temperatures in the low to mid 70s.
Up Next: The front will linger and diminish over the area on Friday, again allowing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to form. Unfortunately, the front is not expected to bring major changes to temperatures or humidity with numbers only going down a few clicks for Friday and the weekend. The long-term outlook from the Climate Prediction Center holds above average temperatures through the end of the month. In fact, the Baton Rouge area is on pace for its hottest September on record.
The Tropics: The Atlantic Basin is rather busy. The remnants of Tropical Storm Imelda will bring an additional 5-7 inches of rain to southeastern Texas over the next few days. Hurricane Humberto has passed Bermuda, and is on the way to its demise in the north Atlantic. Tropical Storm Jerry is strengthening and expected to become a hurricane as it approaches the Lesser Antilles and Virgin Islands this weekend. At the moment, it is forecast to remain just north of the islands and with a turn to the north occurring next week. This would keep the storm out to sea, but it is too early to write this one off for the United States. Two other waves, one halfway between the Cabo Verde Islands and Windward Islands and another near the Dominican Republic are given low development chances over the next 5 days.
A weak, backdoor cold front will move into the area Thursday and Friday. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected with this front as it moves through Thursday afternoon and evening. Sinking air ahead of this front and outside of Imelda’s remnants will allow thermometers to easily warm into the low and mid 90s. If enough heating can be achieved Thursday, there could be a few strong thunderstorms along the front when as it arrives. On the other hand, if the suppression is too strong, it could prevent any thunderstorms from forming at all. Friday too will have a shot at showers and thunderstorms thanks to the decaying boundary over the region. Any rain that occurs would be beneficial to the area. There is some slightly drier air with this front but do not expect significant changes. Morning may feel a little more comfortable through Sunday. Forecast models disagree on what happens early next week. The GFS model returns a ridge and dry, warm conditions. The ECMWF shows a more suppressed jet stream and therefore keeps temperatures in check. While the end of September is a time we start to see some fronts making it into the region, there is no immediate sign of a significant passage and the Climate Prediction Center is calling for above average temperatures and drier conditions to end the month.
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