Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Thursday evening video forecast

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Into the weekend, a slightly better chance for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return to the area. Prospects are no longer looking great for a cold front to cleanly pass through the area next week.

The Next 24 Hours: Another mostly clear night is ahead. Low temperatures may dip into the mid 70s, just a touch lower than the previous few nights. The week will end with persistent weather. Partly sunny skies will lead highs temperatures into the low 90s. Just a stray shower or thunderstorm is possible later in the day, mainly west of I-55.

After That: On Saturday, enough moisture and instability may be around for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop and this general pattern will continue through Tuesday. The forecast gets interesting beyond that, as a cold front will be up in the Midwest. The boundary should be enough to create an uptick in rain coverage. With regard to any temperature changes, the European model shows the front staying north; the American previously suggested it would pass through the area, but is now coming into better agreement with the former. Both do at least suggest a modest drop in dew point temperatures and therefore some slightly lower humidity is possible. The Climate Prediction Center continues to indicate a slight chance of below average temperatures.

The Tropics: Both Tropical Depression Nana over Central America and Tropical Depression Omar over the north Atlantic are expected to degenerate into remnant lows on Friday. Elsewhere, a small area of low pressure midway between the Windward Islands and west Africa has a 40 percent chance of formation in the central Atlantic. Another tropical off the coast of Africa is expected to merge with another disturbance southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands. There is a 70 percent chance that a tropical depression forms next week as this system moves slowly west-northwest over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Additionally, a fresh wave pegged to move off the African Coast has a 20 percent chance of formation early next week.

The Explanation: A Bermuda ridge of high pressure has led to dry and sinking air across the central Gulf Coast for several days. A broad trough will dig into the Eastern U.S. over the weekend and erode the ridge. An area of lower pressure will open up between that ridge and another in the Western U.S. Those changes should result in a more typical late summer pattern that leads to isolated, afternoon convection through Tuesday. By the middle of next week, a cold front will be draped across the Lower Midwest. While forecast models have come into better agreement that cooler temperatures will not clear the local area, some lower dew points may aide in slightly below average low temperatures for the middle and end of next week.


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