September 22, 2018 Forecast
Tonight and Tomorrow: Scattered showers will continue to isolated and taper off through the evening, with dry conditions by 11 PM tonight. Muggy conditions will stick around, as temperatures are slow to cool to an overnight low of 73°. Winds will stay light and out of the south-southeast tonight and into Sunday. Clouds will build through the morning hours on Sunday, leading to light and moderate showers along the coast. This moisture will push inland through the late morning and afternoon hours, providing scattered showers and storms between 1 PM and 6 PM. Temperatures will be warming into the 80s by 10 AM, and reaching a high of 89° shortly after noon. Passing showers will keep temperatures bouncing through the 80s most of the day, but should drop into the 70s around 8 PM.
Up Next: An approaching cold front has stalled to our north and west, keeping us in a wet weather pattern over the next several days. A second cold front will approach midweek, which will cause widespread showers and slightly cooler conditions the wrap up the workweek.
Tropical Storm Kirk has formed earlier today off the coast of Africa. It is currently about 425 miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands with sustained winds of 40 mph, and is moving west-northwest at 16 mph. A westward motion at a similar forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. A faster westward motion across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean is expected Sunday through Tuesday. Some strengthening is forecast through Sunday, with little change in intensity expected on Monday and Tuesday.
Tropical Depression Eleven is currently about 440 miles east of the Windward Islands with sustained winds of 30 mph, and moving northwest at 3 mph. A faster west-northwestward motion is expected to begin tonight and continue through dissipation. The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low tonight or Sunday and dissipate Sunday night east of the Lesser Antilles.
We are also continuing to track two tropical waves in the Central Atlantic. The first is located about 200 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, and is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit development tonight and Sunday, but conditions could become more conducive for some development of this system on Monday or Tuesday while it moves westward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By the middle of next week, strong upper-level winds are likely to limit additional development as the system turns northward and moves closer to the southeastern coast of the United States. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 20% chance of development over the next 2 days, but a 40% chance of development over the next 5 days.
The second wave is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Azores. Conditions are expected to become conducive for this low to acquire subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next day or so, and a subtropical or tropical cyclone is likely to form by early next week while the low meanders over the central Atlantic Ocean. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 60% chance of tropical development over the next 2 days, and a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days.
An approaching cold front from the northwest has stalled along the Arkansas-Louisiana border, with low pressures developing to our west in East Texas. This frontal location will not change much in the coming days, effectively pulling Gulf moisture onshore and along this frontal boundary. Scattered showers and storms will stay the course through the beginning part of the workweek, with this system slowly dissipating on Tuesday. Clouds will continue to build through the morning hours over this time period, inhibiting temperatures from breaking into the 90s. A second frontal system will move in from the northwest Wednesday and into Thursday, reinforcing the existing stationary front just in time as it falls apart. This secondary front should make it along the I-10 corridor on Wednesday, before a similar demise occurs into the weekend as its predecessor. This second front will bring more widespread showers and storms Wednesday and Thursday, before turning showers more isolated on Saturday. This front will also help to bring high temperatures down into the mid to low 80s through the remainder of the workweek.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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