September 11, 2019 AM Forecast
Today and Tonight: Spotty showers still possible through the afternoon hours today, as mostly sunny skies will be overhead. Temperatures will warm into the 90s around lunchtime, with an afternoon high of 94° with light winds out of the east. Mostly clear skies continue tonight, with lows around 73°.
Up Next: Spotty showers and storms today, but drier conditions will ensue Thursday and Friday. High temperatures will stay in the mid-to-upper 90s through the remainder of the workweek. Rain chances increase over the weekend, as highs approach 90° Sunday.
We are currently tracking three tropical waves.
The first is a surface trough that is located over the Turks and Caicos which continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized storms across the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, and extending northward over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports continue to indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next few days due to marginally conducive upper-level winds while the system moves very slowly west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become more favorable for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Friday and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida by late Friday and continuing into the weekend. The National Hurricane center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, which increases to a 60% chance within the next 5 days.
The second is a broad low pressure system located about 650 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Although this disturbance continues to produce disorganized shower activity, some slight development of this system is still possible on Wednesday. By Thursday, however, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days. The National Hurricane center is forecasting a 20% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, which increases to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.
The third is located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands and is forecast to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow development is possible over the weekend or early next week when the system is expected to be a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles The National Hurricane center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, which increases to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.
The upper-level pattern over the southeast US will stay relatively the same through the week as a ridge is centered over the Appalachians. We will be on the western side of this upper high pressure today, allowing for spotty showers to continue to be in the forecast. The ridge will then build more west across our area and into Texas tonight into Thursday, helping to warm highs back into the mid-to-upper-90s and drying conditions out. This will not last long though, rain chances will be increasing as a trough tracks across the Gulf of Mexico and eroding the ridge over the weekend. Models are in slightly better agreement from yesterday, as the GFS now is leaning with the EURO suggesting that the ridge will limit development and higher rain coverage west of New Orleans. Sunday and Monday is looking wetter, as bands of rain will likely be pushing onshore from this incoming tropical wave, but models are inconsistent on strength. Both the GFS and the EURO have been hinting at a slight potential for a tropical system to develop over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, but the operational models and ensemble models are having a tough time with it. The GFS operational run shows a closed low developing, but its ensembles do not. The opposite is the case for the EURO, where the operational run show no closed low and the ensembles do. This inconsistency leads to little confidence other than elevated rain chances at this time. Stay tuned.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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