October 4, 2019 AM Forecast
Today and Tonight: Some areas of patchy fog possible this morning before 8 AM, then mostly sunny skies through the remainder of the morning. Clouds will be building slightly through the afternoon, as isolated showers and storms develop likely after 3 PM east of Baton Rouge and pushing west through the rest of the day. Showers could be lingering until closer to midnight tonight. Temperatures will again be above average, breaking into the 80s around 9 AM, as highs peak near 94° with heat index values close to 104°.
Up Next: Isolated afternoon showers stay the course over the next several days, as highs stay well above average through the weekend. Temperatures are poised to drop to near average next week, as a cold front should break through and into the Gulf.
We are continuing to monitor a broad area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center has been tracking over the northwestern Caribbean Sea which is now located just north of the Yucatan Peninsula, and it appears to be degenerating into a broad trough of low pressure. Only a few showers remain associated with this system, and development is not anticipated while it moves over the Bay of Campeche. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days and 5 days.
A new are of concern is a low pressure system that is forecast to form in the North Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores by the middle of next week. This system will be monitored for signs of tropical or subtropical development while it moves slowly westward. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical formation over the next 2 days, increasing to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.
The large high pressure ridge that has been staying put over the southern states is starting to lose its grip and beginning to flatten out through the day today. This will allow for a stronger sea breeze front to develop later today, with afternoon showers and storms building along the I-10 corridor. Coverage should stay isolated, but cells could linger until midnight tonight. Most storms should stay well shy of strong or severe criteria, but gusts close to 40 mph will be possible. This sea breeze regime will continue through the weekend, keeping spotty to isolated afternoon showers and storms in the forecast through the weekend. The first cold front of the season is still expected to push into our area and into the Gulf Monday and Tuesday, bringing more scattered storms through our area but also cooler temperatures. Drier conditions will be the case behind the front on Tuesday, as highs stay suppressed in the mid-to-upper 80s starting Monday. The front rebounds as a warm front later in the week on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing spotty showers back into the forecast and slightly increasing highs close to 90°. Models are still hinting of a second, stronger cold front pushing through our area next weekend. This front is likely to be more north to south versus the flatter cold front earlier in the workweek.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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