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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday evening video forecast

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A significant pattern change and spring preview is in store for most of the week ahead. Though temperatures will be warm, there will be some times of dodging showers and thunderstorms.

Next 24 Hours: The overnight hours will be mostly cloudy with a spotty shower possible. Since winds will persist out of the southeast at 10-15mph, widespread fog development should not be a major problem. Tuesday will be mild once again with high temperatures reaching the low 80s. Skies will be mostly cloudy and a few showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially north of I-10.  

Up Next: Wednesday and Thursday will bring continued spring-like weather. Mornings will be mild and foggy with low temperatures in the upper 60s. Afternoons will be warm with high temperatures in the low 80s. While some breaks of sun are expected, clouds will be the main feature in skies and a stray shower or thunderstorm remains possible either day. A very slow moving cold front will nudge through on Thursday night and Friday leading to mainly cloudy skies and scattered showers. While not a guarantee at the point, a full frontal passage should lead to cooler air Friday afternoon into the weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Explanation: A deep, southwesterly flow in the atmosphere will persist through the end of the week and is a key player in several aspects of the forecast. First, a couple of weak disturbances embedded in this flow will pass well north of the local area. These should create enough left in the local area for a few showers and thunderstorms to develop on Tuesday. However, low level wind shear will be too low for any severe weather to get going south of Mississippi. A stray shower or thunderstorm will also be possible on Wednesday and Thursday. Second, the deep southwest winds will also continue to usher very warm and muggy air over the region. The unseasonably warm air mass will pass over cool nearshore Gulf of Mexico waters and allow some sea fog to develop Tuesday and Wednesday night—especially if the winds can decrease below 10mph. Slightly drier air aloft will allow for some sunshine to break through the fog and low cloud deck during the subsequent afternoons. High temperatures will find the low to mid 80s, flirting with records through Thursday. Third and finally, an upper level trough of low pressure will nudge a slow moving cold front closer to the area on Thursday evening. The southwesterly flow aloft will be parallel to the cold front and is not conducive to a swift frontal passage. Therefore, there could be a period late Thursday through Friday where there is a 30+ degree range in temperatures from the Louisiana coast to southwest Mississippi. As the front passes through, instability will be very weak so rain is the only expectation as far as precipitation goes, and most of the activity will occur behind the front Thursday night into Friday. Once the front finally chugs along on Friday afternoon, temperatures will cool and stay below average for a few days. Since the upper level winds will remain out of the southwest, clouds will stick around in the wake of the front Friday and Saturday. The next upper level trough of low pressure and associated cold front will swing through on Sunday. Enough moisture should be available for scattered showers will develop on Sunday. This system will be much more progressive. The upper level wind flow will turn northwesterly behind it allowing a much more thorough drying of the atmosphere. Expect rapidly clearing skies and another big dip in temperatures will lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s on Monday.

--Josh

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