Monday evening video forecast
The National Weather Service has issued a FLASH FLOOD WATCH for East Baton Rouge, West Baton Rouge, Ascension, Assumption, Iberville, East Feliciana, Livingston, Pointe Coupee, St. Helena, St. James, Tangipahoa and West Feliciana Parishes until 7pm Tuesday. Additional periods of locally heavy rainfall are expected through Tuesday. Much of the area has seen 4 – 6 inches of rain since Thursday. Therefore, additional heavy rain will occur over areas that have either saturated soils or standing water. Expect rapid rises on area creeks, streams and drainage systems, and ponding of water in low lying areas, including underpasses. Street flooding is likely in poorly drained areas. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding and how to stay safe, CLICK HERE. Remember, a watch means, “conditions are favorable, and a particular threat could develop” and a warning means, “that threat is happening and you should take action immediately.” If a FLASH FLOOD WARNING is issued, it is best to stay off roads and seek higher ground if near flood prone or fast rising creeks and streams.
The Next 24 Hours: The pesky rainy pattern will not let up just yet. While more breaks are anticipated overnight, scattered activity is expected—especially closer to dawn. Lows will be in the mid 70s. Some rain will be around to begin Tuesday as well although this batch may not be quite as widespread as the last few mornings. One more batch of showers and thunderstorms, some heavy, will come during the afternoon hours. In between the activity, highs will try to peak in the mid 80s.
The Long Term Trend: Wednesday will be the transitional day. While it won’t be dry for all, we should finally see some spots miss rain with just an afternoon scattering of showers and thunderstorms. Thursday and Friday look primarily dry but the consequence of that is warmer temperatures. Highs will find their way into the 90s. Over the weekend, a weak cold front will come into the area. Don’t get too excited; we are not expecting any temperatures changes, rather this boundary will provide a focus for additional showers and storms—some could be strong.
The Tropics: Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure about 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands has not changed much since Monday morning. Environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat favorable for development during the next few days and there is an 80 percent chance that a tropical depression or tropical storm will form during that time frame. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph and it could bring heavy rain to portions of the Leeward Islands by late Wednesday.
The Explanation: An inverted upper level trough of low pressure stretching from the remnants of Hanna will remain over the region through Tuesday. This feature will continue a fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and allow for plenty of instability to generate showers and thunderstorms. Due to the prolonged stretch of wet weather, grounds are saturated and it will not take much for street and poor drainage flooding to occur. This threat and the pattern should start to break on Wednesday. For the latter half of the week, a weak ridge of high pressure will build over the central Gulf Coast. A warmer, more stable atmosphere will provide some opportunity for drying. However, daytime warming and daily marine breezes will still allow for isolated, afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop—though many areas will miss rain on Thursday and Friday. On the drier days, high temperatures will return to normal levels in the low 90s. Over the weekend, a positively tilted longwave trough will slowly move into the Eastern U.S. and drive a weak cold front into the Southeast. This front will not have much cooling power but in combination with the associated trough, there will be another focal point for scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms—especially Saturday through Monday.
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