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Weather rhythm continues, increasing showers by the weekend

10 months 1 week 6 days ago Wednesday, July 14 2021 Jul 14, 2021 July 14, 2021 5:24 PM July 14, 2021 in Weather
Source: WBRZ Weather

Wednesday played out as expected with showers and thunderstorm sparking after lunchtime with most of the activity along and south of I-10 and west of the Mississippi River. By the weekend, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be more evenly dispersed across the viewing area once again.

Next 24 Hours: Any lingering showers will wane by 9pm. Low temperatures will then dip into the low 70s beneath partly cloudy skies. Thursday will be similar to Wednesday in that a few showers and thunderstorms will develop, especially for locations along and west of the Amite River. 40 to 60 percent of the 13 Parish, 3 County Forecast Area is expected to pick up rain. High temperatures will achieve the low 90s by about noon before dropping off into the upper 70s and low 80s once clouds and showers form.  

Up Next: By Friday, instability will increase leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms on both Friday and Saturday, especially during the afternoons. These warm season boomers are always capable of brief bouts of heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty wind. Rainfall totals will be minor for most but a locally higher amount is always possible this time of year, which could lead to minor street and poor drainage flooding. Sunday will again be a bit drier. Neither weekend day is expected to be a washout although any outdoor afternoon activities could briefly be chased inside due to lightning. Through the extended period, temperatures will not stray much from average. After morning lows in the mid 70s, afternoon highs will stride for the low 90s. Of course, areas that experience showers before noon may bust in the upper 80s. CLICK HERE for your full 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, no tropical development is expected over the next five days. For the latest tropical forecasts and information, visit the WBRZ Hurricane Center as we navigate all 183 Days of Hurricane Season.

The Explanation: On Thursday and Friday, a weak upper level trough will set up just north of the forecast area while higher than average atmospheric moisture remains in place. The upper level trough will not completely overtake the area and therefore while instability will increase slightly, it will not be drastic and daily rain coverage will only tick up a bit. The best chances for rain will be west of the Mississippi River with the lowest chances east of I-55. Daytime warming and marine breezes will be the primary triggers for showers and thunderstorms but since surface winds will be light, it will take well into the mid-morning hours, and perhaps even early afternoon to fire up the activity. The upper level trough will be better positioned over the area by Saturday to increase instability across the area leading to greater coverage in showers and thunderstorms and equal chances across the forecast area with no one spot more likely than another to receive rain. This pattern will hold right into early next week. By the end of next week, there are some indications that a more substantial ridge could begin to build over the Midwest. If that ridge nudges over the local area, a hotter and drier pattern could occur. If the ridge remains just to the west, drier northwesterly winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere could increase the chance for strong, gusty thunderstorms.    

--Josh

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