Wednesday and Thursday will be the days to watch this week. A very unstable and moist, tropical air mass will combine with a weak trough of low pressure to support torrential thunderstorms both days.

Next 24 Hours: Showers will end and clouds will decrease overnight with low temperatures near 74 degrees. With a little less time under the sun on Wednesday, high temperatures might not touch 90 and top out around 89 degrees for most. The daily showers and thunderstorms could be widespread at times by late morning and early afternoon. Some could produce heavy rain and localized flooding.

10-30% - Isolated: a few locations receive measurable rain

30-60% - Scattered: part to half of the area receives measurable rain

60-100% - Widespread: almost all of the area receives measurable rain 

Keep in mind, those chances tell nothing about timing. For instance, 100% DOES NOT mean it will rain all day. We will be sure to provide information in our forecasts as to when you can expect rain when chances are on the board. MORE: https://www.wbrz.com/news/a-chance-to-remember

Up Next: By Thursday, repeated rounds of thunderstorms could cause some areas to oversaturate and therefore have poor drainage flooding issues. On average, most of the forecast area will pick up about three inches of rain by the end of the workweek, but some isolated amounts doubling that are possible. At this time, river flooding is not a concern but it is worth watching if rainfall overachieves. Over the weekend, a slightly drier air mass will move into the region. While this will not eliminate activity entirely, it will drop showers and thunderstorms to isolated in nature and replace the heavy rain threat with a chance for gusty wind. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

2pm EDT 9 Aug: Showers & thunderstorms remain disorganized associated with a tropical wave SW of the Cabo Verde islands. This system has a 30% chance ?? of tropical cyclone formation before conditions become less favorable this weekend.

Latest Outlook→https://t.co/m9946DGzPQ pic.twitter.com/1BOi77HNAU

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) August 9, 2022

The Tropics: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave a few hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remains disorganized. While some gradual development of this system is possible over the next several days, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. There is just a 30 percent chance of formation while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic.

The Explanation: An upper level trough of low pressure with a very moist, tropical air mass will move across the region through Thursday. Our value of assessing moisture, known as precipitable water, will move from an already above average 1.8 inches to 2.2 inches. Wednesday afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms will break out as temperatures warm. With very weak steering winds in place, storms will rain themselves out, possibly leaving behind a few inches in isolated locations. The risk for heavy rain and flooding problems will increase as a result and the Weather Prediction Center has included the Baton Rouge Metro Area and points east in a risk for excessive rain. By the end of the week, a deepening upper a level trough of low pressure in the Northeast U.S. will push a weak surface front toward the Gulf Coast. This boundary will provide a focus for multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms to develop. With a few rounds possible, a weak steering winds remaining, some unlucky spots could pick up many inches of rain on Thursday or Friday alone. If these same areas are saturated from early week rain, flooding issues could easily develop. By Saturday, the upper level trough of low pressure and associated deep moisture will drift west, placing the local area on the eastern fringe of an upper level ridge of high pressure. This switches the pattern around. A slightly drier atmosphere and northerly steering winds will cause showers and thunderstorms to fire up later in the day. When thunderstorms develop in a slightly drier air mass, storms are more capable of gusty wind, rather than heavy rain. Additionally, later thunderstorms will also mean more time for warming and high temperatures well into the 90s.      

--Josh

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