Rain will be the only relief from the steam machine today. 

THE FORECAST: 

Today and Tonight: The forecast is split today. Areas north of the 10-12 split will likely be dry today with high temperatures near 94. South of the split, including Baton Rouge, could see an isolated shower or storm in the afternoon or evening. Rain will help to cool things off, but plenty of dry time will allow temperatures to heat to near 94 in the meantime. Heat index values will have no problem hitting 100, so rain will really help to cool things off. Shower and storm activity will clear out overnight with temperatures getting down to near 76. 

Up Next: The weather story this week is the increasing rain chances. When rain chances go up, temperatures go down. Wednesday highs will be near 93 with 40% rain coverage. Thursday temperatures will be near 91 with 60% rain coverage. Thursday will be the wettest day, but Friday still has a forecast of about 50% rain coverage. The humidity is back and overnight lows will not be able to cool much past the mid-70s. 

The Tropics: Thunderstorm activity associated with a large low pressure system located more than 800 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands has increased and become a little better organized over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development to occur, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the end of the week. Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. 

THE EXPLANATION:

The southeast US is currently in a ridging pattern allowing for temperatures to be above normal. Our overall flow is out of the south, but precipitable water values are only near 1.75” (compares to the 2” or higher we have seen so far this summer). Showers and storms will need daytime heating to bubble up this week. Outflow boundaries will be a good indicator of where storms will form in the evening. Moisture levels will continue to increase with the persistent southerly flow. Thursday and Friday will have the highest PWAT values and likely the most rain coverage this week. 

-Marisa

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