It was a nice little break from the humidity last Thursday and Friday but we knew better than to expect that it would last. A normal summer pattern is back into gear for the week ahead.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight:  Monday will begin with partly sunny skies and temperatures climbing for a high of 92 degrees by early afternoon. A noticeable return of humidity, in addition to deep moisture in the atmopshere will allow scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoon. As usual with summer storms, some will receive downpours and frequent lightning while others will miss rain entirely. Overnight, showers will wrap up with partly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 70s.

Up Next: A wet pattern is setting up across the Gulf States. A surface high pressure system will park over the Carolinas resulting in continued southeasterly wind flow across the Gulf and inland. This setup will provide ample moisture for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop during the afternoons. Looking ahead to next weekend, the strongest signal is that the same late summer weather pattern will continue, meaning Sunday watch parties and Labor Day plans will be fine, just needing to dodge a passing shower or thunderstorm.

LSU Kickoff: For those making the trek to Dallas, the key weather feature will be heat. The early outlook for northeast Texas calls for dry conditions with highs in the upper 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

The Tropics:  The Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico are quiet. No development is expected over the next 5 days. There are some signs that the basin may awaken as we near the peak of the season in Mid-September. Continue to check in for updates.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level high pressure is now centered over the Appalachian Mountains. This has opened the region to deeper Gulf moisture and minimal subsidence to inhibit convective development. The atmosphere is well saturated with precipitable water or available moisture around two inches and that is above average for the time of year. The combination of minimal subsidence and ample moisture throughout the atmosphere will create an environment conducive for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop over the next several days. Storms will fade in the late afternoon and early evening as the sun sets. The upper level high pressure will gradually shift east and into the western Atlantic Ocean, and become anchored there through at least the rest of this week. This should result in a relatively stagnant forecast with 40-60% coverage in measurable rain each day. In terms of temperatures, outside of storm influences, highs should be near normal each day. The Weather Prediction Center is highlighting a fast moving tropical disturbance crossing the northern Gulf Coast next weekend which could serve to enhance showers and thunderstorms for a day or two.

--Dr. Josh

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