THE FORECAST:

Tonight and Tomorrow: Mostly cloudy skies through this evening, with the potential for overnight pockets of drizzle after 2 AM. Southerly winds between 5 and 10 mph and ample cloud cover will allow temperatures to cool very slowly, with lows only reaching near 65°. There is also a potential for fog to develop overnight into Monday morning, especially in areas along the coast and around the tidal lakes. A strong, positively tilted trough and associated cold front will be driving through our area Monday, with the potential for strong and severe storms to develop through the afternoon and evening hours. The main threat will be strong, gusty winds, large hail, and tornadoes. The timing should be after 2 PM until 8 PM. Localized flooding will also be possible as this slow moving cold front could set up training lines. Rain amounts could reach between 1 and 2 inches depending on where those lines set up during the evening. Highs will reach near 79° with 10 to 20 mph winds out of the south. Make sure to stay weather aware and download the WBRZ Weather mobile app., as weather warnings are likely to be issued on Monday and Monday night.

Up Next:  A wet and stormy start to the workweek, with some storms Monday afternoon and evening potentially reaching severe status. Chilly conditions behind the storms, as Tuesday and Wednesday nights temperatures will drop to freezing.

THE EXPLANATION:

High temperatures will continue to be above average on Monday, as strong southerly winds will push Gulf warmth and moisture onshore. The Storm Prediction Center has placed areas along and north of the I-10 corridor in the enhance category (3 out of 5) for severe weather potential on Monday, with areas south of I-10 in the slight category (2 out of 5). The main threat will be gusty winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes. The timing for storm development will be from 2 PM until 8 PM, with some storm cells developing to our west after noon. Lingering showers will be possible early Tuesday morning, but clearing skies and much cooler conditions will move in. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday night will drop to near or slightly below freezing. Below average temperatures stay through the week.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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