Returning front, returning humidity, returning a shower
Another two days of unseasonable warmth are ahead. The next cold front will pass by on Thursday bringing an extended period of dry and more seasonable weather.
Today and Tonight: Your Tuesday will bring a return of the stickies with high temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 70s. Thanks to advancing moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, an isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible, especially during the afternoon. Winds will turn southerly at 5-10mph. A decent evening is in store for LSU Baseball playing host to Grambling. First pitch temperature will be in the mid 70s and though mainly dry conditions are expected, an isolated shower is possible. Overnight, look for mostly cloudy skies and lows in the mid 60s.
Up Next: Wednesday afternoon highs will get back into the 80s to wrap up a warm February. Some sun is expected while rain showers should be at a minimum. A cold front will move into the region on Thursday bringing a line of showers and thunderstorms through. On the other side of this boundary, look for the coolest readings thermometers have seen in a few weeks, especially with regard to morning lows. Some upper 40s are anticipated Friday and Saturday. Highs will be close to normal in the low 70s with sunny afternoons.
Locally, weekend rain caused some of the smaller rivers to swell. The Tangipahoa River at Robert will crest 2 feet above flood stage on Wednesday, but the Amite will remain below flood stage. The Mississippi River at Baton Rouge is slowly rising in response to heavy rain in the Midwest and Ohio Valley over the last few weeks. At Baton Rouge, a crest 5 to 6 feet above flood stage is expected in the next two weeks. Given the current forecast, river traffic and industrial operations would be affected, however the city of Baton Rouge is protected by the levees. Areas north of the city, such as farmland near Angola, will experience some inundation.
The cold front that passed through on Monday will retreat north as a warm front on Tuesday and should be clear of the region by Tuesday night. As the boundary pushes through, an isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible in the return flow. The southeast ridge responsible for last week’s warmth will nudge into the central Gulf as well returning well above average temperatures for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. As the mid-levels are not expected to be saturated, some sunshine will also boost temperatures. This ridge should keep rain at bay on Wednesday and send thermometers into the low 80s. The warmer readings will not last long because a stronger shortwave trough will drive a cold front into the area on Thursday. A line of showers and thunderstorms appears likely at this point with a shot at some stronger storms northward into central Mississippi. Locally, instability and upper level winds should be a little less than favorable for nasty storms. On the other side of this front, the Baton Rouge area is likely to enjoy a stretch of sunshine and more seasonable temperatures. By next weekend, lows could dip all the way into the 40s, marking the coolest temperatures since mid-February. Another ridge will briefly build over the area on Saturday afternoon allowing warmer than average readings. Yet again, a retreating front will come north on Sunday returning showers and thunderstorms to the forecast. Forecast models currently disagree on the speed of this system with the GFS stalling the boundary and showing rounds of heavy rain into next week. The ECMWF is more progressive with just a day or so of unsettled weather.
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