THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Sunny skies initially to start your Thursday, but clouds will be increasing through the morning hours. Spotty showers will be possible through the afternoon after 1 PM until 8 PM, but cells should stay to our north along the Mississippi/Louisiana border. A cell or two could break south along the I-10 corridor, but unlikely. It will be another warm day, as temperatures will peak near 93° for your afternoon high. Dewpoints will be back in the low-to-mid-70s which will allow heat index values to likely break into the triple digits. Conditions will be drying by 7 PM to 8 PM, as clouds will break up late and overnight. Lows will drop near 72° with calming winds.

Up Next:  Isolated afternoon showers stay the course over the next several days, as highs stay well above average through the weekend. Temperatures are poised to drop to near average next week, as a cold front should break through and into the Gulf.

The Tropics: 

We are continuing to monitor a broad area of low pressure that is centered a little more than 100 miles south of the western tip of Cuba, but its associated shower activity is disorganized and located well to the east of the low. This system is forecast to move westward across the northern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche during the next few days. Although surface pressures are forecast to remain low across the area, upper-level winds do not favor any significant development. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, but that increases to a 20% chance within the next 5 days.

THE EXPLANATION:

The all-powerful ridge is still centered over the southern states, but will finally begin to flatten through the weekend. This will allow for afternoon isolated showers and storms to develop due to a sea breeze font that will keep pushing onshore each day. The flattening ridge will also open the door to the first cold front of the season breaking through and into the Gulf on Monday and Tuesday. This will bring scattered showers and storms during this timeframe, but also high temperatures will finally drop to near fall averages. Models are hinting at another, stronger cold front pushing through late next week.

--Meteorologist Matt Callihan

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