Relatively cooler temperatures will eventually give way to below average temperatures beyond some mid-week rain.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: Warmer with more sunshine—that’s the call for your Tuesday before the pattern takes an unsettled mid-week shift. Expect highs in the low 70s with light easterly winds. Overnight won’t be as cool. Lows stay in the mid 50s and clouds will be on the build. A few showers could develop as early as dawn.

Looking Ahead: Clouds and rain are expected for Wednesday. Pockets of rain will roll across the region through the day with amounts remaining under one inch. A few rumbles of thunder may occur, but no severe weather is expected. Despite the gloomy look, a surge of warmer air from the south will be getting highs into the low 70s. Overnight will be cloudy with lingering showers and a low in the low 50s. A cold front will kick through the region thereafter with a lot of sunshine and much cooler air for the remainder of the week. Thursday and Friday Nights will have highs near 60 and lows in the mid 30s.

THE SCIENCE: 

Forecast Discussion: A developing Gulf low and associated warm front will lift into the region tonight bringing a batch of rain to the Central Gulf Coast. Winds aloft are strong, favorable for a well ventilated storm to continue developing and producing rain meaning Wednesday will be rather wet. Depending on the exact track of the surface low, some locations (especially south of I-10) could have a few imbedded thunderstorms. A more southern track of the low would keep deeper cloud cells over the Gulf of Mexico, thus limiting any thunder. The worst case scenario could result in a few storms producing gusty winds, but overall this will be a low impact event. As the surface storm exits, the supporting upper trough will bounce into the region bringing a period of cooler, dry weather. Clouds may linger as the trough axis cuts through, but expect full sunshine to return by Friday. The pool of cooler air aloft should be reinforced by light northerly winds resulting in more seasonable to even below average temperatures into the weekend. Highs Friday through Sunday will be in the 59-64° range with lows in the 35-40° range.

 --Josh

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