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Near-normal activity expected in the tropics to end out October

1 month 2 weeks 5 days ago Thursday, October 14 2021 Oct 14, 2021 October 14, 2021 5:03 PM October 14, 2021 in Weather
Source: Colorado State University

Overall, the tropics have been quiet so far in the month of October with no named storms impacting the United States. 

Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Sam remained out in the open Atlantic, as well as weaker Tropical Storm Victor.

There is only one name left on the list for the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season: Wanda. 

Will we get to Wanda before the month is over? 

The experts at Colorado State University issued their short-term outlook on the tropics today (Oct. 14) and are calling for a 60% chance of "near-normal" tropical activity and a 20% chance of above and below normal tropical activity. 

The main reasoning behind a higher chance of "near-normal" tropical activity is the lack of wind shear that will be moving into the western Caribbean next week. Strong wind shear typically inhibits tropical formation. Sea surface temperatures over the Caribbean are also extremely conducive for maintaining tropical development, as this is a region that has not seen much tropical activity since Ida back in August.


During the month of October, the western Caribbean is a hot spot for tropical cyclone formation. 

Last season, Delta, Zeta, Eta and Iota all developed in the western Caribbean and went on to become major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). 

At the moment, our two most reliable global forecast models (GFS and European) keep the Atlantic quiet over the next two weeks. The GFS has hints of tropical formation in the Caribbean in the next 10-14 days.


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