Monday PM Forecast: rain, thunderstorms likely to slow morning drive
The most impactful weather of the entire 7-Day Forecast is likely to occur overnight into Tuesday. A round of rain and thunderstorms could snarl the morning drive.
?? - UPDATE: Monday, 9:40pm— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) March 15, 2022
We continue to monitor showers and thunderstorms developing over Texas that will move east across Louisiana tonight. A squall line should be intact as it arrives in the local area. #LaWX #MsWX pic.twitter.com/IMR4PCDNix
Next 24 Hours: With low temperatures stopping around 60 degrees, expect showers and thunderstorms to increase in coverage across the area—especially after midnight. While the overall severe weather threat is low, some of the thunderstorms could produce hail, downpours and frequent lightning. We cannot entirely rule out the possibility for gusty wind or an isolated tornado. Any of those hazards could slow down the early morning commute, or at the very least, stir us awake. In case one or two storms are strong enough to warrant a warning, please have a way to receive alerts overnight. Most of the showers and thunderstorms will wrap up by 9am on Tuesday, with clearing skies through the day. A straggling shower could develop later in the afternoon, but most will stay dry. Thanks to returning sunshine, high temperatures will get back into the low 70s.
Up Next: The midweek weather can be described as quiet and pleasant. Wednesday and Thursday should have mainly clear skies with high temperatures in the 70s and low temperatures in the 50s. Another quick hitting storm system will deliver showers and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. It is too early to discount the chance of severe weather, but as of now, this appears to be another event with garden-variety showers and thunderstorms. Clearing is expected to end the week with dry, seasonable weather over the weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.
The Explanation: A strong upper level trough of low pressure will cut across the southern tier of the country, moving over the local area tonight. Ahead of this, southeast winds are allowing moisture to increase over the central Gulf Coast. Lifting, rising motions will spread over the area tonight causing a surface low to form near the I-20 corridor. In response to this, a band of showers and thunderstorms will develop in Texas and rapidly evolve eastward. Fortunately, the instability with this system is expected to remain elevated—that is—it will not have a connection with the surface, which makes it difficult for tornadoes to form. However, there is some instability aloft and along with strong winds and a low freezing level in the atmosphere, hail, and even gusty winds will be possible. In addition to that, frequent lightning and brief downpours will be possible as well. Most of the activity will occur between 2am – 8am with clearing skies to follow in the afternoon as drier air spills into the region. As the associated upper level trough follows through at that time, there will be enough instability in the atmosphere for a few leftover showers, but the increasingly dry air will make it tough for much more than some lingering clouds into Wednesday morning. The cold pool in the wake of this system is not substantial and temperatures will stay near average as a surface high-pressure system takes hold through Thursday. Then, another upper level trough of low pressure will move through the region, though a bit farther north than its predecessor. Winds will shift back to the south increasing moisture into Thursday night. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is anticipated into Friday morning. With the parent upper level system and surface low tracking farther away from the local area, this activity should be less considerable than Tuesday morning. As that trough exits to the northeast, clearing skies are expected later Friday into the weekend. That front is expected to stall in the northern Gulf of Mexico this weekend but with a lack of upper level moisture, dry conditions should continue Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures will stay near average through Sunday.
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