Contrary to last week, the coming days will be wetter than average with several periods of rain and thunderstorms. Any thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty wind and downpours, leading to some pockets of street and poor drainage flooding.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: On Tuesday, expect partly sunny skies early allowing high temperatures into the mid 80s. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop during the late morning and afternoon hours. About 70 percent of the 13 parish, 3 county area will receive rain today. Any storms will be capable of downpours, gusty wind and frequent lightning. Overnight, activity should subside with low temperatures in the mid 70s. 

Up Next: Similar to Monday, a round of showers and thunderstorms may get going early on Wednesday followed by an afternoon crop as well. Though the area has been dry of late, the cumulative impact of warm season downpours will eventually saturate the ground and make it possible for localized, nuisance flooding. As a reminder, please find an alternate route if you come across a flooded road.  Clouds and showers will tamp down high temperatures through Wednesday while the humid air mass will cause overnight low temperatures to stay in the mid 70s. By the end of the week, a slightly drier and warmer trend will emerge but it does not appear that showers and thunderstorms can be totally eliminated from the forecast.   

The Tropics: On Monday, Subtropical Depression Four formed well east of New England. As of 4am Tuesday the storm was more than 350 miles south of Halifax, Nova Scotia and moving northeast at 10-15mph. With maximum sustained winds of 35mph, little strengthening is expected and Four is likely to turn post-tropical by Wednesday over the North Atlantic Ocean.

THE EXPLANATION:

An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly move across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through Wednesday. Along and east of this trough axis, ample lift in the atmosphere will tap some very deep moisture to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Disturbances in the upper levels, positive vorticity advection, will aid convective development and forecast models are currently pointing to Tuesday afternoon, Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon as some key times for increased rain coverage. With a moisture-laden atmosphere, any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning as possibly gusty wind. It would not be surprising to see some locations collect several inches of rain through the middle of the week, though the area-wide average will be around 1-3 inches. Through Wednesday, times of rain and widespread clouds will keep high temperatures below average in the mid to upper 80s. However, high dew point temperatures will result in above average low temperatures in the mid 70s. By Friday, the trough axis will begin to push east and some ridging will occur aloft resulting in a warmer and slightly more stable atmosphere. Though marine breeze convection will still be able to occur in this setup, far less coverage is expected Friday through Sunday.   
--Josh

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