A cold front will deliver chilly and dreary weather for Mardi Gras festivities during the first half of the weekend. A warm up will begin on Sunday afternoon.

Tonight & Tomorrow: Overcast skies will persist tonight with a few light showers. Low temperatures will stop in the mid 50s. Saturday will be dreary and chilly. Intermittent light rain is expected through the first half of the day. Even as the showers taper later, cloud cover will last and this will prevent warming. High temperatures will stay in the 40s in many locations with low 50s, at best, where rain stops earlier. In addition to that, north winds of 10-15mph will cause a wind chill in the low 40s and even upper 30s into the evening hours.

Up Next: As winds slacken and skies clear into Sunday morning, the second half of the weekend will begin with low temperatures in the mid 30s. A light freeze is possible for areas north of Baton Rouge. The afternoon will feel much more pleasant as sunshine guides high temperatures into the low 60s. Warming will continue on Monday with highs in the upper 60s. Clouds will increase ahead of the next cold front pegged to deliver showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday. That system may stall, followed by a second cold front on Thursday. Though it is too early for specifics, both systems show some potential for severe weather.  

A look past the weekend shows the next possible impact player(s) in our weather. @WBRZweather #LaWX #MsWX pic.twitter.com/3Zyyz5TNrO

— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) February 10, 2023

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Detailed Forecast: An upper level trough of low pressure will swing through the region on Friday night with a reinforcing cold front. This upper level system will move much more slowly and cause the surface low pressure system and front to stay over the central Gulf Coast for much of Saturday. The moisture wrapping around the back side of the surface low will cause a period of drizzle or light rain through the first half of Saturday with low clouds for most of the day. Keeping sunshine blocked will mean a chilly day with most areas stuck in the 40s. By Saturday evening, clouds should be moving out and temperatures will fall after sunset. Though freezing temperatures are not expected in the Metro Area for Sunday morning, a few isolated areas in southwestern Mississippi could get there. Sunday will start off chilly as a surface high pressure builds into the area but ample sunshine will warm temperatures to nearly 60 degrees. That surface high will begin to shift eastward away from the area on Monday afternoon, resulting in the onset of a warming trend as highs rise into the upper 60s. By Tuesday we should be entrenched in southeast return flow as the next upper level trough moving into the Mountain West sends a low from the Southwest to the Great Lakes. This will force another cold front toward the area with rain and a few strong thunderstorms likely Tuesday. That front will lose its forward momentum as the upper low lifts northeastward causing steering winds to become more parallel to the front. With questions as to where exactly this front will stall, the latter part of the long term forecast remains low confidence. However, currently it looks like the front will wash out before passing through the local area, with continued warmer than normal temperatures through Thursday. The next front will come at that time and we will need to monitor the setup for a severe weather risk.

--Josh

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