Heat and humidity has dominated for the past week or so. Over the next 7 days, showers and thunderstorms will be much more prevalent, keeping high temperatures in check.

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: It will be a hot start to the workweek, but scattered showers and thunderstorms will proceed to cool down thermometers in the afternoon. High temperatures will reach around 92 degrees by early afternoon with light, westerly winds. Overnight, showers will end but clouds will linger, with lows near 75 degrees.

Up Next:  A very wet weather pattern will set up over the area this week with several upper level disturbances moving through the area. Thunderstorms are expected to increase in intensity and coverage as we move into Tuesday thanks to a cold front moving in from the northwest. High pressure that is located in the Gulf will aid in bringing ample moisture ashore during the week, as the cold front dissipates over southeast Louisiana. The remnant moisture and lift associated with the cold front will linger into next weekend though, keeping afternoon rain chances elevated and temperatures below average.

The Tropics: There are currently no active storms in the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico. No development is expected over the next 5 days.    

THE EXPLANATION:

Upper level ridges are centered near Bermuda and the Rocky Mountains with troughs over the Eastern U.S. A strong impulse is moving through the trough in the Upper Midwest. A weak front extends from Memphis to the Texas/Oklahoma border. A moist airmass will remain across the area through Wednesday with precipitable water values near 2 inches, and briefly higher on Tuesday. Expect areal coverage of convection to be in the 40-60 percent range Monday afternoon, lingering into the early evening. The shortwave over the Upper Midwest will move through the Middle Mississippi River Valley Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. This will enhance precipitation coverage and much of the area could see 1-2 Inches of rain. Most areas have been relatively dry recently and should be able to withstand that much rain. The Weather Prediction Center does show a slight risk of excessive rainfall for Tuesday so we will continue to monitor for the potential of any training situations. Monday is likely to be the last day of the extended forecast where high temperatures come in above average. Precipitation should hold highs for much of the area in the 80s Tuesday and Wednesday. While the main impulse lifts out of the area into New England on Wednesday, the trough will remain over the Mississippi River Valley through the end of the week. This will allow slightly drier air to move into northwest portions of the forecast area, which could end up in a relatively dry Thursday. However, the weekend still shows enough moisture to justify scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for much of the area.

--Dr. Josh

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