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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Tuesday morning video forecast

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Rain chances are almost nil through the week. Comfortable warmth will slowly yield to returning humidity by Friday. 

THE FORECAST:

Today and Tonight: A stalled front in the central Gulf of Mexico could feasibly spew a shower as far north as I-10 on Tuesday, but this is a low chance and anything that does develop inland would be light and brief. Additionally, a weak upper level disturbance to the west could result in some clouds mixing with sunshine as high temperatures top out in the low 80s again. Overnight will be mostly clear and again comfortable with lows in the low 60s.

Up Next: Surface high pressure will dominate the weather pattern to end the week. Expect at or below average high temperatures through Wednesday. The high pressure center will shift our east by Thursday, helping to increase high temperatures and dew points, meaning some higher humidity will take hold beginning Thursday. Highs will approach the 90s Friday and Saturday, before a weakening cold front returns the possibility of showers to the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

 

RIVER SITE

FLOOD STAGE

CURRENT LEVEL

FORECAST

Amite River Near Denham Springs

29.0’

29.0’

Below Tue.

Amite River Near Bayou Manchac

9.0’

12.0’

Below Thu.

Amite River Near Port Vincent

8.0’

8.5’

Below Tue.

Tangipahoa River Near Robert

15.0’

17.0’

Below Tue.

 

The Mississippi River: At Baton Rouge, major flood stage continues with a level of 43.1’ as of Tuesday morning. Peaking at 44.1’ on March 19, the river set its 7th highest recorded crest at Baton Rouge. In addition, at 129 days this marks the second longest period above flood stage. Heavy rain that fell north of the area will keep the river high through Mid-May. At about 44’, an updated forecast now suggests this second crest could challenge the first earlier this year. Still, the high water is primarily an issue for river traffic and river islands, although some inundation will continue unprotected low-lying areas. The city of Baton Rouge and the main LSU campus are protected by levees up to 47 feet. Some soggy areas and seepage may be noted due to the long duration of high water placing pressure on the levees. As some of the Mississippi River diverts into the Atchafalaya River, gauges at Krotz Springs and Morgan City will stay high as well. This creates backwater flooding in parts of Assumption Parish in areas such as Stephensville and around Lake Palourde. Like Big Muddy, this is expected to be a prolonged event but is not uncommon for the time of year.

THE EXPLANATION:

A stalled front in the central Gulf of Mexico could create precipitation along the coast through Wednesday and perhaps sneak a shower inland on Tuesday but the chance of this and any amounts would be minimal. A mid to upper level disturbance will zip across the area on Tuesday as well, but the atmosphere is awfully dry so some passing clouds seem to be the only noticeable consequence. Dew points have fallen into the mid 50s in response to northerly winds and it feels comfortable for Mid-May. With a broad area of high pressure strengthening over the Southeast, and winds shifting southeasterly we will continue to warm up Thursday and Friday but remain dry. The next weather maker will arrive over the weekend. A trough will nudge the high pressure farther east. That trough could potentially send another front into our area, but it is still unclear if that trough will be deep enough to do that. Of course, frontal passages become increasingly unlikely in Late May into June.

--Josh

The WBRZ Weather Team is here for you, on every platform. Your weather updates can be found on News 2, wbrz.com, and the WBRZ WX App. on Apple and Android devices. Follow WBRZ Weather on Facebook and Twitter for even more weather updates while you are on the go.

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