October 23, 2019 AM Forecast
Today and Tonight: Strong high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across our area, keeping skies sunny and conditions cool for your Wednesday. Temperatures will be warming into the 60s around 10 AM and 70s around noon. Highs will peak near 73° with light winds out of the east. Clear skies stay the course tonight, allowing temperatures to freefall after sunset to reach overnight lows near 51°.
Up Next: Sunny and cooler into Thursday before scattered showers and storms return in the forecast as we approach the weekend.
A tropical wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, and the adjacent waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward and emerge over the Bay of Campeche on Thursday, and then move northward and northeastward into the southwestern and central Gulf of Mexico on Friday and Saturday. Some development will be possible by late Friday and Saturday before the system likely becomes absorbed by a cold front on Sunday. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a 0% chance of tropical development within the next 2 days, but that increases to a 30% chance within the next 5 days.
Strong high pressure set up camp yesterday and is getting comfortable, making conditions rather pleasant over the next several days. It will not last forever, and moisture will begin to move back into the area starting Thursday. We should stay dry, but clouds will be increasing through the day. This is associated with a warm front that will be slow to move north and may only bisect the area before the next front moves through. The next cold front is set to move in late in the workweek, but models are still in disagreement on timing and how quickly it will push through our area. Models are still not in agreement, but both do show showers and storms by at least Friday morning. Both also have a warm front moving onshore Friday ahead of the main cold front. The GFS brings the cold front through clean on Friday, but the EURO waits until late Saturday and stalls until the next front which will help to press it east and into the Gulf. Both models also show a weak disturbance building in the western gulf, which should increase rainfall associated with the cold front passage as it moves along the frontal boundary. This is a similar setup that occurred with Monday’s cold front, which will elevate rain chances as we proceed into the weekend.
--Meteorologist Matt Callihan
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