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Baton Rouge, Louisiana
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Monday evening video forecast

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The week ahead will bring gradually moderating temperatures. With that, some rain will be back in time for Thanksgiving dinner.

Next 24 Hours: A pocket of showers moving across the region has had trouble reaching that surface. That being said, a few sprinkles or some drizzle is possible during the evening hours. Mostly cloudy skies will hold on beyond with low temperatures in the low 40s. A mix of sun and clouds is expected on Tuesday with high temperatures warming into the mid 60s.

Up Next: A warming trend will continue on Wednesday as high temperatures take a run at 70s degrees. Clouds will increase late in the day and that trend will continue into Thanksgiving. A slow moving storm system will develop over the Lower Midwest and spread rain eastward across the Mississippi River Valley Thursday and Friday. Expect precipitation to develop later on Thursday after a high temperatures in the low 70s. Periods of rain will be possible right through Friday. It is still too early to tell if the system will be progressive with a front kicking out the moisture on Friday evening, or of there will be some showers lasting into the weekend. CLICK HERE for your detailed 7-Day Forecast.

The Tropics: For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, all is quiet. No tropical development is expected over the next five days.

The Explanation: Clouds will continue to increase through tonight as some mid/upper-level moisture spreads east across the Mississippi River Valley. However, the associated weak trough to our west will weaken leaving little, in any, lift in the atmosphere. Any lingering drizzle will dissipate tonight with mid and upper-level clouds persisting into Tuesday. Highs will be a few degrees warmer reaching the mid 60's in a few spots, especially where some sun sneaks through clouds. Into Wednesday,  clouds will depart early revealing mostly clear skies and highs will easily climb into the upper 60s or even lower 70s.

Wednesday night, focus shifts back to our west as a deep upper level trough of low pressure digs into the Mountain West. This trough will move into New Mexico and Texas, cutting off from the upper level steering winds on Wednesday night. What this means at the surface is a bit challenging. This trough should set the stage for increasing mid-level southwest wind flow pumping moisture into the region through Thursday morning. As that occurs, rain will develop and overspread the area into the afternoon hours on Thanksgiving and continue overnight. If the local area remains in the warm sector, temperatures will stay mild for one more day. Depending on the eventual track of an associated surface low, there may even be a window of opportunity for severe weather, but it is too early for details in that regard. This system will eject east by Saturday as the upper level low de-amplifies and gets picked up by a weak kicker trough over the northern Great Lakes.

--Josh

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