The weather is about to turn very active as a tropical disturbance moves inland later tonight. An additional 4-7 inches of rainfall, with isolated amounts twice that high are likely, and there is even a threat of isolated tornadoes. 

Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued along the central Gulf Coast, extending from the east Texas coastline to St. Mary Parish, as a brief tropical storm may develop on Wednesday. Through Thursday, there may be minor coastal flooding and some wind gusts over 30mph along the coast, while the primary impact remains heavy rain for inland areas. The National Hurricane Center has started issuing forecasts for Potential Tropical Cyclone One. Review the reason behind the relatively new potential “tropical cyclone terminology” HERE.

A FLOOD WATCH remains in effect for the entire Capital Region through Friday morning. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH means conditions may develop that lead to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation. Be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. For more on flooding safety, CLICK HERE.

The Next Impact: Overall, you will find a lot of dry time on Wednesday, which should allow drainage to recover from recent heavy rains. Although it will be a mostly cloudy sky, there will be a few peaks of sunshine. Despite any sunshine and dry time, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible throughout the day, especially during the afternoon and evening. While we may see fewer total storms on Wednesday, the ones that do break out will be capable of dumping heavy rain very quickly. Late this evening and overnight is when the main impacts arrive. Heavy, tropical rain bands will move inland as a tropical disturbance makes landfall. Rainfall will be likely most of the night and even into Thursday morning. This could make the Thursday morning commute very messy, so prepare for much slower drive times, and possible flooded roadways. Storms will stay likely throughout Thursday, before coverage trends down in the evening. 

The main impact from this tropical disturbance will be the be the threat of flash flooding. Widespread additional amounts of 4-7 inches of rain with “streaks” of 8-14 inches are likely. If those amounts occur in our cities rather than open marsh or swamp land, it will trigger significant poor drainage and river flooding. In addition to the heavy rain, circulation associated with the tropical disturbance could also lead to an isolated, brief tornado.

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Up Next: On Friday, the tropical system will finally pull away to the east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop due to lingering tropical moisture. Expect a slow, gradual lowering of daily rain coverage with the pattern moving back toward daytime warming pop-up thunderstorms over the weekend. Humidity will stay in place and highs will return to the 90s.    

Get the latest 7-day forecast and real-time weather updates HERE.

Watch live news HERE.

The Tropics: As of 5am Wednesday, a tropical disturbance is currently sitting right along the Middle Texas coast. It remains disorganized this morning, with maximum winds holding around 30 mph. Strong upper-level winds are creating a hostile environment for tropical formation, pushing the heaviest storms far to the east of the system's actual center. The low is expected to hug the Texas coastline today before moving inland over eastern Texas and Louisiana tonight, where it will likely weaken further and begin to dissolve. Ultimately, regardless of whether this system ever earns a tropical name, heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding remain the primary threats. Stay weather aware and weather prepared.

River Flooding: With recent heavy rain and more storms on the way, several local river gauges are forecast to rise. To track conditions, find the latest river levels and forecasts below, updated twice every hour.

— The Storm Station Meteorologists

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