Several more rounds of rain and storms through Thursday
As of 7am Wednesday morning, severe thunderstorms were exiting the WBRZ Weather forecast area. It is possible that a tornado touched down in in the Westminster area of East Baton Rouge Parish and the same storm was responsible for a report of an observed tornado on the ground near Independence.
A few more days of above average coverage in showers and thunderstorms is expected. By the weekend, activity will become a bit more limited and temperatures will respond by warming. Though the area has been dry of late, the cumulative impact of warm season downpours will eventually saturate the ground and make it possible for localized, nuisance flooding. As a reminder, please find an alternate route if you come across a flooded road.
Today and Tonight: Wednesday will bring another couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Downpours, frequent lightning and gusty wind all remain possible. It is important to note that there will be breaks in the rain. Like Monday, the widespread clouds and rain will lead to below average high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Activity will settle into the evening hours with muggy low temperatures in the mid 70s.
Up Next: Thursday looks to be similarly active to Wednesday and it may be until Friday before showers thunderstorms will become less widespread. By the end of the week, a slightly drier and warmer trend will emerge but it does not appear that showers and thunderstorms can be totally eliminated from the forecast. Highs will be near 90 and lows will be near 75 through early next week.
The Tropics: On Tuesday, Tropical Storm Dolly formed well east of New England. As of 4am Wednesday, the system had weakened into a tropical depression and will move out to sea and dissipate without affecting land.
An upper level trough of low pressure will slowly move across the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through Thursday. Along and east of this trough axis, ample lift in the atmosphere will tap some very deep moisture to produce rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Disturbances in the upper levels, positive vorticity advection, will aid convective development and forecast models are currently pointing to Wednesday morning and Wednesday afternoon as some key times for increased rain coverage. A pair of rounds look possible on Thursday as well. With a moisture-laden atmosphere, any thunderstorms will be capable of heavy rain, frequent lightning as gusty wind. It would not be surprising to see some locations collect several inches of rain through the middle of the week, though the area-wide average will be around 1-3 inches. As we saw Wednesday morning, a brief tornado can spin up as well, even though that is fairly uncommon during the summer months. Through Thursday, times of rain and widespread clouds will keep high temperatures below average in the mid 80s. However, high dew point temperatures will result in above average low temperatures in the mid 70s. By Friday, the trough axis will begin to push east and some ridging will occur aloft resulting in a warmer and slightly more stable atmosphere. Though marine breeze convection will still be able to occur in this setup, less coverage is expected Friday through Sunday.
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